China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  things are started to cool down in to the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year end.</li>
<li>On placements front, most of the action was in India with Australia seeing a large offering after a while.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
On the IPO front,  things are started to cool down in to the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year end.
On placements front, most of the action was in India with Australia seeing a large offering after a while.


ECM Weekly (18th Dec 2022) - China ADRs, Skymark, Daiei, Weilong, KFintech, Sula, Endeavour, Adani

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history.</li>
<li>This was on back of the Aug 2022 agreement between PCAOB, CSRC and MOF, which was followed up with a Hong Kong visit by PCAOB officials over Sep-Nov 2022.</li>
<li>We wrote about this on 14th Dec 2022 and expected the results to be out on Friday (16th Dec), they have come out a day earlier than we expected.</li>
</ul>


Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history.
This was on back of the Aug 2022 agreement between PCAOB, CSRC and MOF, which was followed up with a Hong Kong visit by PCAOB officials over Sep-Nov 2022.
We wrote about this on 14th Dec 2022 and expected the results to be out on Friday (16th Dec), they have come out a day earlier than we expected.


China ADRs Delisting - Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected - No Delisting Risk for Now

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> reported 3Q2022 results Tuesday. 3Q revenue increased 11.3% YoY to RMB5.8bn (vs consensus RMB5.7bn) while operating losses for the quarter dropped to RMB1.8bn vs consensus RMB2.1bn.</li>
<li>Recovery in mobile games biz alongside aggressive cost cutting measures supported improvement in Bilibili’s profitability during the quarter.</li>
<li>Pandaily reported that Bilibili is exploring expanding into the SEA region and increased R&amp;D spending could be an indication that plans are underway.  </li>
</ul>



Bilibili Inc (BILI US) reported 3Q2022 results Tuesday. 3Q revenue increased 11.3% YoY to RMB5.8bn (vs consensus RMB5.7bn) while operating losses for the quarter dropped to RMB1.8bn vs consensus RMB2.1bn.
Recovery in mobile games biz alongside aggressive cost cutting measures supported improvement in Bilibili’s profitability during the quarter.
Pandaily reported that Bilibili is exploring expanding into the SEA region and increased R&amp;D spending could be an indication that plans are underway.  


Bilibili: Earnings Recovery to Continue with Improvement in Mobile Games and Cost Controls

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili total revenue was up by 11% YoY and 18% QoQ to RMB5.8bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB5.7/5.8bn.</li><li>Adjusted net loss widened by 9% YoY but narrowed by 10% QoQ to RMB1.76bn in 3Q22, better than consensus/our estimate of RMB1.83/1.97bn, due to solid GPM expansion (+3.2pct QoQ) and effective control in marketing expenses (-25% YoY).</li><li>For 4Q22E, the company guided total revenue to increase by 4-7% YoY to RMB6.0-6.2bn, with YoY growth slowing due to relatively soft advertising and mobile game businesses.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BiliBili total revenue was up by 11% YoY and 18% QoQ to RMB5.8bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB5.7/5.8bn.Adjusted net loss widened by 9% YoY but narrowed by 10% QoQ to RMB1.76bn in 3Q22, better than consensus/our estimate of RMB1.83/1.97bn, due to solid GPM expansion (+3.2pct QoQ) and effective control in marketing expenses (-25% YoY).For 4Q22E, the company guided total revenue to increase by 4-7% YoY to RMB6.0-6.2bn, with YoY growth slowing due to relatively soft advertising and mobile game businesses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Focus on more sustainable growth

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ECM Weekly (18th Dec 2022) - China ADRs, Skymark, Daiei, Weilong, KFintech, Sula, Endeavour, Adani

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

China ADRs Delisting - Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected - No Delisting Risk for Now

Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history. This removes...

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili: Earnings Recovery to Continue with Improvement in Mobile Games and Cost Controls

Bilibili's 3Q2022 earnings have eased most of our concerns. Initiatives to revive mobile games biz and cost controls should support further...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Bilibili (BILI US) – Focus on more sustainable growth

BiliBili total revenue was up by 11% YoY and 18% QoQ to RMB5.8bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB5.7/5.8bn.

CMB International

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