Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.</li>
<li>However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. </li>
<li>The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.


What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.</li>
<li>Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.</li>
<li>Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?</li>
</ul>


AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.
Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.
Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?


Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
Context: A recent market pullback alongside implied volatility at the 95th–98th percentile has created a fertile environment for cross-sectional analysis across TOPIX and Nikkei 225 constituents.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: A quantitative screen reveals dispersion in both returns and volatility, with distinct clusters supporting different option structures—from premium-selling strategies to asymmetric upside participation.</li>
<li>
 Why read: This note provides a practical framework and illustrative setups (put underwriting, risk reversals) to help investors translate volatility signals into tailored option strategies.</li>
</ul>



Context: A recent market pullback alongside implied volatility at the 95th–98th percentile has created a fertile environment for cross-sectional analysis across TOPIX and Nikkei 225 constituents.

 Highlights: A quantitative screen reveals dispersion in both returns and volatility, with distinct clusters supporting different option structures—from premium-selling strategies to asymmetric upside participation.

 Why read: This note provides a practical framework and illustrative setups (put underwriting, risk reversals) to help investors translate volatility signals into tailored option strategies.


Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

<ul>
<li>AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?</li>
<li>2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. </li>
<li>ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA</li>
</ul>


AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?
2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. 
ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA


SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

This note presents a cross-sectional approach to identifying options strategies in Japanese equities, set against a backdrop of market pullback and...

Gaudenz Schneider

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

architectural advancements in Logic and Memory, but questions remain on growth rates and China's decline. ASML and KLA are top picks in the sector....

Nicolas Baratte

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What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

​AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

This note presents a cross-sectional approach to identifying options strategies in Japanese equities, set against a backdrop of market pullback and...

Gaudenz Schneider

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

architectural advancements in Logic and Memory, but questions remain on growth rates and China's decline. ASML and KLA are top picks in the sector....

Nicolas Baratte

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...