Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.</li>
<li>Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ
Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.
Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign


Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index team has been quite conscious of market impact since the April 2000 debacle. For a few years after, things were quieter. In 2005, Fast Retailing spurred introspection.</li>
<li>Float was low and became lower. Selection behaviour changed. Now there is a new consultation where "technical listings" would stay in, and phased "stepwise" inclusion would reduce inclusion impact.</li>
<li>The proposal increases subjectivity, reduces the attractiveness of bets, but otherwise increases the likelihood they will follow the other selection rules. It STILL does not solve the high weight problem.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index team has been quite conscious of market impact since the April 2000 debacle. For a few years after, things were quieter. In 2005, Fast Retailing spurred introspection.
Float was low and became lower. Selection behaviour changed. Now there is a new consultation where "technical listings" would stay in, and phased "stepwise" inclusion would reduce inclusion impact.
The proposal increases subjectivity, reduces the attractiveness of bets, but otherwise increases the likelihood they will follow the other selection rules. It STILL does not solve the high weight problem.


Nikkei 225 Index Consultation Makes Things Weirder, but Still a 0️⃣🍔

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Major earnings this week including Hon Hai, Novatek, Wistron, Asustek, and more.</li>
<li>We believe one can consider Long Acer vs. Short Asustek into Asustek's results this week.</li>
<li>Apple Suppliers -- Quanta has tracked Apple's success while others have lagged by a large margin.</li>
</ul>


Major earnings this week including Hon Hai, Novatek, Wistron, Asustek, and more.
We believe one can consider Long Acer vs. Short Asustek into Asustek's results this week.
Apple Suppliers -- Quanta has tracked Apple's success while others have lagged by a large margin.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Earnings; Long/Short Into Asustek Results; Quanta Tracking Apple Shares

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Samsung is finally cutting semiconductor production while Micron makes further cuts to both production and capital spending. </li>
<li>Demand for Japanese semiconductor production equipment has stopped growing and the Japanese government plans to restrict exports in the months ahead. </li>
<li>An optimist would say that the bad news is now all in the price, but this is not good for Tokyo Electron (TEL) and its shares are not cheap.</li>
</ul>


Samsung is finally cutting semiconductor production while Micron makes further cuts to both production and capital spending. 
Demand for Japanese semiconductor production equipment has stopped growing and the Japanese government plans to restrict exports in the months ahead. 
An optimist would say that the bad news is now all in the price, but this is not good for Tokyo Electron (TEL) and its shares are not cheap.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Recovery Likely to Be Slow

<ul>
<li>Samsung announced that it would reduce memory chip production in light of crashing profits, this is after the company had previously said it would not reduce production. Memory names rallied.</li>
<li>Hon Hai announced a $820m investment plan for EV manufacturing in southern Taiwan.</li>
<li>Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions targeting China will take effect starting in July.</li>
</ul>


Samsung announced that it would reduce memory chip production in light of crashing profits, this is after the company had previously said it would not reduce production. Memory names rallied.
Hon Hai announced a $820m investment plan for EV manufacturing in southern Taiwan.
Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions targeting China will take effect starting in July.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Finally Announces Chip Production Cuts; Hon Hai's New EV Factory

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ. Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion, down 7.2% QoQ.Tool push outs & cancellations spreading...

William Keating

Nikkei 225 Index Consultation Makes Things Weirder, but Still a 0️⃣🍔

The Nikkei 225 proposal does little. It reduces impact. That likely increases the chances the Nikkei Index Team will follow existing rules. And it...

Travis Lundy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Earnings; Long/Short Into Asustek Results; Quanta Tracking Apple Shares

Quanta has tracked Apple's share price success while many other suppliers have lagged by a large margin. Separately, one can consider going Long...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Recovery Likely to Be Slow

Samsung to cut memory IC production. Micron to make further cuts to production and capex. Japan to add new sanctions on China. Inventory still too...

Scott Foster

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Finally Announces Chip Production Cuts; Hon Hai's New EV Factory

Samsung reversed its production capacity strategy after suffering losses. Also, Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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