Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>I estimate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">China Evergrande Group (3333 HK)</a> (CEG) is trading at an extraordinary <strong>discount to NAV of 93%</strong> against a one-year average of 77%. </p>
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<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: CapIQ, my estimates. According to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shengjing-bank-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:96:1" rel="noopener">Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0408/2021040802085.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2020 annual report</a> (page 63), CEG holds 3.201bn domestic shares. For simplistic sake, I've pegged those shares at the price of Shengjing's H shares. According to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengten-networks-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">HengTen Ltd (136 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0427/2021042700547.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2020 annual report</a> (page 13), CEG held 55.64% of shares out. But Evergrande has been selling, and now holds <a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20210826E00320&amp;sa2=as&amp;sid=223&amp;corpn=HengTen+Networks+Group+Ltd.&amp;sd=15%2f09%2f2020&amp;ed=15%2f09%2f2021&amp;cid=0&amp;sa1=cl&amp;scsd=15%2f09%2f2020&amp;sced=15%2f09%2f2021&amp;sc=136&amp;src=MAIN&amp;lang=EN&amp;g_lang=en&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26.55%</a>.  For the stub ops, these are simply priced at book. A basket of peers is trading at ~0.6x, so probably a tad generous.</div>
<p>The problem with the calculation is that it marks the "stub ops" - the consolidated but unlisted portions of the business, predominantly Hengda Real Estate - at 1.0x book. Its competitors trade at 0.6x book on average so if one were to remove 40% of the value of the stub ops, that would eliminate roughly three quarters of the "NAV." That sounds huge but if you eliminate three quarters of the NAV, it means the 93% discount drops to 70% (the magic of compounding, in reverse), which still might be attractive. </p>
<p>The problem above and beyond that is that when a company is in "unprecedented difficulties" as the company said yesterday, the value of the assets themselves may be in question.</p>
<p>Evergrande's liquidity crunch has been discussed at length here at Smartkarma, most recently by me in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/jrXuN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: What To Do With Evergrande?</a></em>; and in greater depth by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a>, in which he said in his latest insight <em><a href="https://skr.ma/KkUHL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Evergrande as a Study of Quantum Mechanics Theory</a></em>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Outside observers are looking at the situation and wondering whether Schrödinger's Cat is dead or alive.</p>
<p>Any process which requires a time-constrained liquidation of assets usually ends up with the asset owner suffering from "fire sale prices." Given the leverage inherent in Evergrande, this should not come out well for shareholders. </p>
</blockquote>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>It need not be said, the general consensus is bearish.</li>
</ul>
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<h3>The New News</h3>
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<li>Early yesterday morning, Evergrande <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0914/2021091400059.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it expects significant declines in contract sales in September.</li>
<li>Contract sales in June, July, and August 2021 were to RMB71.63bn, RMB43.78bn, and RMB38.08bn.</li>
<li>Often the month of September is when real estate companies in China record higher contract sales of properties. Evergrande said: <em>"ongoing negative media reports concerning the Group have dampened the confidence of potential property purchasers in the Group</em>."</li>
<li>Evergrande added it is actively exploring with potential investors the sales of part of its interests in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> - though no material progress has been made -  plus bringing in new investors to the company and its other subsidiaries.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>In view of the difficulties, challenges and uncertainties in improving its liquidity .... there is no guarantee that the Group will be able to meet its financial obligations under the relevant financing documents and other contracts.</p>
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<ul>
<li>Evergrande has now engaged Houlihan Lokey (China) Limited and Admiralty Harbour Capital Limited to assess the company's capital structure.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>Separately ...</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Chinese media has lit up recently as property buyers raise concerns their apartments may not ever be completed; and concerns have also been voiced from (mainly ) retail investors (many of whom are Evergrande employees) who invested in wealth management products in which the proceeds were used to fund Evergande's property projects. </li>
<li>This culminated in scores of people protesting outside Evergrande's headquarters in Shenzhen earlier this week according to news reports from Reuters, <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/234150/Evergrande-tries-to-calm-investors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Standard</a>, and others. </li>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/229/892/original/image?1631686617" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="229892"></figure>
<p><em>Not the ideal welcoming party when you arrive at work in the morning  - police outside one of Evergrande's offices. (photo source: <a href="https://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/finance-real-estate/china-evergrande-hires-houlihan-lokey-as-financial-advisor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mingtiandi</a>)</em></p>
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<ul>
<li>Reportedly Evergrande is offering three repayment options for wealth management buyers:  via cash installments, starting with 10% of their principal and interest of their matured products, with the remainder through 10% installments per annum; repayment via property assets; or investors can apply the outstanding product value to offset the balance of any Evergrande residential unit purchased. The fine print has yet to be ironed out. </li>
<li>Media sources are reporting what has been speculated upon for days... that Evergrande will not pay its loan interest payments due on 20th September. Apparently the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development notified banks today (Bloomberg). </li>
</ul>
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<p>The fact Evergrande's liquidity issue has now gone fully public makes one question how it can reverse this negative trend. </p>


I estimate China Evergrande Group (3333 HK) (CEG) is trading at an extraordinary discount to NAV of 93% against a one-year average of 77%. 




Source: CapIQ, my estimates. According to Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK)'s 2020 annual report (page 63), CEG holds 3.201bn domestic shares. For simplistic sake, I've pegged those shares at the price of Shengjing's H shares. According to HengTen Ltd (136 HK)'s 2020 annual report (page 13), CEG held 55.64% of shares out. But Evergrande has been selling, and now holds 26.55%.  For the stub ops, these are simply priced at book. A basket of peers is trading at ~0.6x, so probably a tad generous.
The problem with the calculation is that it marks the "stub ops" - the consolidated but unlisted portions of the business, predominantly Hengda Real Estate - at 1.0x book. Its competitors trade at 0.6x book on average so if one were to remove 40% of the value of the stub ops, that would eliminate roughly three quarters of the "NAV." That sounds huge but if you eliminate three quarters of the NAV, it means the 93% discount drops to 70% (the magic of compounding, in reverse), which still might be attractive. 
The problem above and beyond that is that when a company is in "unprecedented difficulties" as the company said yesterday, the value of the assets themselves may be in question.
Evergrande's liquidity crunch has been discussed at length here at Smartkarma, most recently by me in StubWorld: What To Do With Evergrande?; and in greater depth by Travis Lundy, in which he said in his latest insight Evergrande as a Study of Quantum Mechanics Theory: 

Outside observers are looking at the situation and wondering whether Schrödinger's Cat is dead or alive.
Any process which requires a time-constrained liquidation of assets usually ends up with the asset owner suffering from "fire sale prices." Given the leverage inherent in Evergrande, this should not come out well for shareholders. 


It need not be said, the general consensus is bearish.



The New News

Early yesterday morning, Evergrande announced it expects significant declines in contract sales in September.
Contract sales in June, July, and August 2021 were to RMB71.63bn, RMB43.78bn, and RMB38.08bn.
Often the month of September is when real estate companies in China record higher contract sales of properties. Evergrande said: "ongoing negative media reports concerning the Group have dampened the confidence of potential property purchasers in the Group."
Evergrande added it is actively exploring with potential investors the sales of part of its interests in Evergrande Auto (708 HK) and Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) - though no material progress has been made -  plus bringing in new investors to the company and its other subsidiaries.


In view of the difficulties, challenges and uncertainties in improving its liquidity .... there is no guarantee that the Group will be able to meet its financial obligations under the relevant financing documents and other contracts.


Evergrande has now engaged Houlihan Lokey (China) Limited and Admiralty Harbour Capital Limited to assess the company's capital structure.

Separately ...

Chinese media has lit up recently as property buyers raise concerns their apartments may not ever be completed; and concerns have also been voiced from (mainly ) retail investors (many of whom are Evergrande employees) who invested in wealth management products in which the proceeds were used to fund Evergande's property projects. 
This culminated in scores of people protesting outside Evergrande's headquarters in Shenzhen earlier this week according to news reports from Reuters, The Standard, and others. 


Not the ideal welcoming party when you arrive at work in the morning  - police outside one of Evergrande's offices. (photo source: Mingtiandi)



Reportedly Evergrande is offering three repayment options for wealth management buyers:  via cash installments, starting with 10% of their principal and interest of their matured products, with the remainder through 10% installments per annum; repayment via property assets; or investors can apply the outstanding product value to offset the balance of any Evergrande residential unit purchased. The fine print has yet to be ironed out. 
Media sources are reporting what has been speculated upon for days... that Evergrande will not pay its loan interest payments due on 20th September. Apparently the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development notified banks today (Bloomberg). 


The fact Evergrande's liquidity issue has now gone fully public makes one question how it can reverse this negative trend. 

Evergrande (3333 HK): Now Homebuyers And Employees Are Revolting

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<p>In StubWorld this week ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener"></a>Beleaguered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>'s shares bounced after the company <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0810/2021081001009.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it is in talks to sell stakes in two of its units. But optimism over improved capital management appears naive. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Evergrande are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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In StubWorld this week ...




Beleaguered Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)'s shares bounced after the company said it is in talks to sell stakes in two of its units. But optimism over improved capital management appears naive. 




Preceding my comments on Evergrande are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


Travis Lundy

<p>On Friday, it became known that S&amp;P Global ratings had lowered the ratings on Evergrande by two full notches, from B- to CCC, which is now four notches above Default. USD bonds issued by Scenery Journey were lowered from CCC+ to CCC-. </p><p>That was the second time in about ten days that S&amp;P had lowered rates (after the agency had lower rates after the Guangfa Bank account freezing episode, later resolved, and the issue in Shaoyang City which had accused Evergrande of not depositing pre-sale funds into the escrow accounts properly). </p><p>According to a Reuters article...</p><blockquote><p data-testid="paragraph-3">"We lowered the ratings because Evergrande's liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected," the rating agency said.</p></blockquote><div><div><div><div><blockquote><div id="reuters_desktop_native_1">It added the firm's nonpayment risk is escalating not only for the substantial public bond maturities in 2022, but also for its bank and trust loans and other debt liabilities over the next 12 months.</div></blockquote></div></div></div></div><p>This move followed Fitch and Moody's which had both dinged the ratings at end June and again on 28 July and 2 August, respectively. </p><p>To possibly make it worse on the ratings agency front, as of Friday after the close, China's financial regulators are also on the case, trying to root out weakness in "construction of ratings methods and systems" (which could be taken to mean corruption). The PBOC (announcement <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4311502/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a> in Chinese), in conjunction with the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the CBRC, and the CSRC, jointly issued the <em>"Notice on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Bond Market Credit Rating Industry"</em></p><p>On Friday, Caixin Media <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-08-06/exclusive-one-court-will-handle-developer-evergrandes-multitude-of-debt-lawsuits-101751875.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that the Supreme People's Court - the top court in China - had directed that all cases involving debts owed by Evergrande and its related parties be transferred to the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court. According to Caixin... </p><blockquote><p>A court insider said this kind of decision — known as “centralized jurisdiction” — is usually made when a company is involved in a large number of lawsuits across regions and the situation has the potential to cause a significant social impact.</p></blockquote><p>The article notes that other companies which have been subject to <em>centralized jurisdiction</em> include Peking University Founder Group, HNA Group - which have been put through bankruptcy and/or restructuring - and China Fortune Land Development which <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-02-02/developer-china-fortune-defaults-on-53-billion-yuan-in-debt-101659497.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defaulted</a> on repayment of debt in February, and <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-03-10/developer-china-fortune-defaults-on-another-13-billion-in-debt-101673624.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">again</a> in March. </p><p>Vice Premier Liu He apparently apparently pointed out in a State Council meeting the week before last that Evergrande's problems are one of "liquidity stress" rather than an "insolvency" situation. I'd note that a MinNews <a href="https://min.news/en/economy/aff8aa102018d13ea3af930f62859bdb.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> quoting a REDD report says HNA Group, China Fortune Land Development, and China Minsheng Investment were also assessed as having liquidity stress and "non-insolvent debt"</p><p>Banks have been asked to curb lending and in May were asked to stress-test their Evergrande exposure. Evergrande affiliate Shengjing Bank was fined in May for illegally financing real estate projects.</p><p>It would appear that Evergrande has decreasing room for manoeuvre. And that room for manoeuvre depends on others' confidence in stability of outcome. </p>

On Friday, it became known that S&amp;P Global ratings had lowered the ratings on Evergrande by two full notches, from B- to CCC, which is now four notches above Default. USD bonds issued by Scenery Journey were lowered from CCC+ to CCC-. That was the second time in about ten days that S&amp;P had lowered rates (after the agency had lower rates after the Guangfa Bank account freezing episode, later resolved, and the issue in Shaoyang City which had accused Evergrande of not depositing pre-sale funds into the escrow accounts properly). According to a Reuters article..."We lowered the ratings because Evergrande's liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected," the rating agency said.It added the firm's nonpayment risk is escalating not only for the substantial public bond maturities in 2022, but also for its bank and trust loans and other debt liabilities over the next 12 months.This move followed Fitch and Moody's which had both dinged the ratings at end June and again on 28 July and 2 August, respectively. To possibly make it worse on the ratings agency front, as of Friday after the close, China's financial regulators are also on the case, trying to root out weakness in "construction of ratings methods and systems" (which could be taken to mean corruption). The PBOC (announcement link in Chinese), in conjunction with the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the CBRC, and the CSRC, jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Bond Market Credit Rating Industry"On Friday, Caixin Media reported that the Supreme People's Court - the top court in China - had directed that all cases involving debts owed by Evergrande and its related parties be transferred to the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court. According to Caixin... A court insider said this kind of decision — known as “centralized jurisdiction” — is usually made when a company is involved in a large number of lawsuits across regions and the situation has the potential to cause a significant social impact.The article notes that other companies which have been subject to centralized jurisdiction include Peking University Founder Group, HNA Group - which have been put through bankruptcy and/or restructuring - and China Fortune Land Development which defaulted on repayment of debt in February, and again in March. Vice Premier Liu He apparently apparently pointed out in a State Council meeting the week before last that Evergrande's problems are one of "liquidity stress" rather than an "insolvency" situation. I'd note that a MinNews article quoting a REDD report says HNA Group, China Fortune Land Development, and China Minsheng Investment were also assessed as having liquidity stress and "non-insolvent debt"Banks have been asked to curb lending and in May were asked to stress-test their Evergrande exposure. Evergrande affiliate Shengjing Bank was fined in May for illegally financing real estate projects.It would appear that Evergrande has decreasing room for manoeuvre. And that room for manoeuvre depends on others' confidence in stability of outcome. 

Evergrande's Room for Manoeuvre - A Question of Confidence

China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle / Event-Driven

China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle (708 HK)

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>A bubble warning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> from state-media suggests <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>, at a 77% discount to NAV, is a better bet.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Evergrande are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...




A bubble warning on Evergrande Auto (708 HK) from state-media suggests Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK), at a 77% discount to NAV, is a better bet.




Preceding my comments on Evergrande are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Evergrande Auto's Bubble Trouble

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.</p><p>For the Hang Seng TECH Index, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ming-yuan-cloud-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29268:1" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archosaur-games" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28948:1" rel="noopener">Archosaur Games (9990 HK)</a>, while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengten-networks-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">HengTen Ltd (136 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netdragon-websoft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3703:1" rel="noopener">Netdragon Websoft (777 HK)</a>.</p><p> One way turnover is 7.97% due to the inclusions/ exclusions, capping, and free float changes.</p><p>Both inclusions have 0.67 days of ADV to buy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengten-networks-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">HengTen Ltd (136 HK)</a> has 0.6 days of ADV to sell, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netdragon-websoft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3703:1" rel="noopener">Netdragon Websoft (777 HK)</a> has 1 day of ADV to sell.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hang Seng TECH Index, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.The inclusions are Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) and Archosaur Games (9990 HK), while the deletions are HengTen Ltd (136 HK) and Netdragon Websoft (777 HK). One way turnover is 7.97% due to the inclusions/ exclusions, capping, and free float changes.Both inclusions have 0.67 days of ADV to buy, HengTen Ltd (136 HK) has 0.6 days of ADV to sell, while Netdragon Websoft (777 HK) has 1 day of ADV to sell.

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: Two Changes as Assets Continue to Grow

Hong Kong

China Ruyi Holdings Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in content production, online streaming, and online gaming businesses. It produces and distributes films and television works, operates the Pumpkin Films streaming platform, and provides gaming services through its Jingxiu brand. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

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China Ruyi (136 HK)

Evergrande (3333 HK): Now Homebuyers And Employees Are Revolting

I think we just got a peek at Schrödinger's Cat. And it's dead. Evergrande Group needs government intervention right now.

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: What To Do With Evergrande?

Evergrande Auto is not worth what its market cap suggests to an independent third party; and Property Services may or may not be worth what people...

David Blennerhassett

Evergrande's Room for Manoeuvre - A Question of Confidence

Evergrande bad news again chips away at the bonds. Late last week saw the 2nd downgrade by S&P in 10 days, and a "centralisation of jurisdiction"...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Evergrande Auto's Bubble Trouble

CEA's hare price appears unsustainable. Xinhua's commentary is stating the obvious. CEG is a set-up here versus CEA. CEG is tightly held. It would...

David Blennerhassett

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: Two Changes as Assets Continue to Grow

The first review of the Hang Seng TECH index has 2 inclusions and 2 deletions. Assets benchmarked to the index are north of US$1.1bn and will...

Brian Freitas

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