Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA, TCL Zhonghuan, Biwin Storage, XIAOMI.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA, TCL Zhonghuan, Biwin Storage, XIAOMI.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Mar): PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA

Equity Analyst

Ravi Kumar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.</li>
<li>Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.</li>
<li>Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.</li>
</ul>


New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.


Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

<ul>
<li>QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.</li>
<li>QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.</li>
<li>Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).</li>
</ul>


QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.
QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.
Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).


2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

360 Finance, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a digital finance platform to render loans and capital contributions. 360 Finance serves clients in China.

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360 Finance, Inc. (QFIN US)

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Mar): PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Mar 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA, TCL...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

New Chinese rules increase risk sharing with banks, impacting Qfin's CoR. Management boosts controls and provisions. Fair value seen at $43/share...

Ravi Kumar

2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity

QFIN US down 30% on regulatory fears, but strong fundamentals suggest potential for 100%+ upside post-regulatory clarity.

Raj S, CA, CFA

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Mar): PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Mar 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in PDD, UNITED NOVA TECHNOLOGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, ALIBABA, TCL...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

New Chinese rules increase risk sharing with banks, impacting Qfin's CoR. Management boosts controls and provisions. Fair value seen at $43/share...

Ravi Kumar

2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity

​QFIN US down 30% on regulatory fears, but strong fundamentals suggest potential for 100%+ upside post-regulatory clarity.

Raj S, CA, CFA

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

QFIN US down 30% on regulatory fears, but strong fundamentals suggest potential for 100%+ upside post-regulatory clarity.