AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Token costs no longer drop meaningfully with scale, and inference remains a fixed, expensive burden.</li>
<li>Rather than delivering major performance gains, GPT-5 appears to be a cost-routing shell, underperforming in several benchmarks.</li>
<li>With $115B in projected losses and hardly any visible scale-based leverage, OpenAI's only path forward is monetisation.</li>
</ul>


Token costs no longer drop meaningfully with scale, and inference remains a fixed, expensive burden.
Rather than delivering major performance gains, GPT-5 appears to be a cost-routing shell, underperforming in several benchmarks.
With $115B in projected losses and hardly any visible scale-based leverage, OpenAI's only path forward is monetisation.


OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29</li>
<li>In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process</li>
<li>We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress</li>
</ul>


Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress


SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> reported Q1 results on 29 Aug. Despite a revenue miss, strong cloud growth and its AI chip announcement drove the stock up double digits.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Implied volatility deflated sharply post-earnings, with the September contract down 8.5% and back months also lower, while skew shifted down in parallel.</li>
<li>
Why it matters: Put the current volatility surface into context. This insight can serve as a case study of how earnings-driven repricing can inform positioning ahead of future events.</li>
</ul>



Context:Alibaba (9988 HK) reported Q1 results on 29 Aug. Despite a revenue miss, strong cloud growth and its AI chip announcement drove the stock up double digits.

Highlight: Implied volatility deflated sharply post-earnings, with the September contract down 8.5% and back months also lower, while skew shifted down in parallel.

Why it matters: Put the current volatility surface into context. This insight can serve as a case study of how earnings-driven repricing can inform positioning ahead of future events.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Stock Surges Post-Earnings, Options Market Reprices

<ul>
<li>SHEIN is reportedly moving its corporate HQ to China to pave way for HK IPO</li>
<li>US 'de minimis' exemption for all countries ended Aug 29 (China/HK was May 2)</li>
<li>We believe end of US 'de minimis' exemption changed the game for SHEIN</li>
</ul>


SHEIN is reportedly moving its corporate HQ to China to pave way for HK IPO
US 'de minimis' exemption for all countries ended Aug 29 (China/HK was May 2)
We believe end of US 'de minimis' exemption changed the game for SHEIN


SHEIN IPO Update: HQ Shifted (Back) To China | End of US De Minimis Exemption, Everywhere

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

The end of the US "de minimis" loophole has already decimated inbound parcel volume. It will also alter the business models used by SHEIN & Temu,...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba (9988 HK): Stock Surges Post-Earnings, Options Market Reprices

Alibaba's Q1 results drive stock up 12% despite revenue miss. Implied volatility deflated post-earnings, offering insight for future positioning.

Gaudenz Schneider

SHEIN IPO Update: HQ Shifted (Back) To China | End of US De Minimis Exemption, Everywhere

Two pieces of news that could affect SHEIN: 1) the company reportedly will shift its HQ back to China soon to pave the way for a HK IPO; 2) the US...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

​As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

The end of the US "de minimis" loophole has already decimated inbound parcel volume. It will also alter the business models used by SHEIN & Temu,...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba (9988 HK): Stock Surges Post-Earnings, Options Market Reprices

​Alibaba's Q1 results drive stock up 12% despite revenue miss. Implied volatility deflated post-earnings, offering insight for future positioning.

Gaudenz Schneider

SHEIN IPO Update: HQ Shifted (Back) To China | End of US De Minimis Exemption, Everywhere

Two pieces of news that could affect SHEIN: 1) the company reportedly will shift its HQ back to China soon to pave the way for a HK IPO; 2) the US...

Tracking Traffic

As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Alibaba's Q1 results drive stock up 12% despite revenue miss. Implied volatility deflated post-earnings, offering insight for future positioning.