AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Record royalties now make up over half of Arm’s revenue, with Compute Subsystems (CSS) earning nearly 2x more than conventional designs.</li>
<li>Hyperscaler CPU share jumps to ~50%, as Neoverse powers AI infrastructure at NVIDIA, AWS, Google, and Microsoft.</li>
<li>Custom silicon stickiness deepens, with multigenerational GPU deals and CSS design wins spanning cloud, PC, and automotive verticals.</li>
</ul>


Record royalties now make up over half of Arm’s revenue, with Compute Subsystems (CSS) earning nearly 2x more than conventional designs.
Hyperscaler CPU share jumps to ~50%, as Neoverse powers AI infrastructure at NVIDIA, AWS, Google, and Microsoft.
Custom silicon stickiness deepens, with multigenerational GPU deals and CSS design wins spanning cloud, PC, and automotive verticals.


[Earnings Review] Arm’s AI Royalty Engine Powers Through Cloud and Edge Tailwinds

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.</li>
<li>Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.</li>
<li>Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).</li>
</ul>


Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.
Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.
Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).


Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Magnificent 7 positioning remains elevated across global funds, but momentum has clearly stalled, with recent activity pointing to consolidation rather than renewed conviction buying. </li>
<li>Growth and GARP funds are near fully allocated, while Value and Yield managers remain structurally underweight— potentially limiting the potential for broad-based participation from here. </li>
<li>Microsoft leads with cross-style appeal; Tesla lags with minimal support. Apple is the conviction underweight, while NVIDIA’s benchmark surge has left it at a record active underweight.</li>
</ul>


Magnificent 7 positioning remains elevated across global funds, but momentum has clearly stalled, with recent activity pointing to consolidation rather than renewed conviction buying. 
Growth and GARP funds are near fully allocated, while Value and Yield managers remain structurally underweight— potentially limiting the potential for broad-based participation from here. 
Microsoft leads with cross-style appeal; Tesla lags with minimal support. Apple is the conviction underweight, while NVIDIA’s benchmark surge has left it at a record active underweight.


Magnificent 7:  Global Fund Positioning Update

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Engineering work continues on the 14A, but further capacity expansion is on hold until a major external customer commits.</li>
<li>CEO Lip-Bu Tan is prioritising balance sheet strength and shareholder returns after years of aggressive capex.</li>
<li>Intel would only expand PPE upon firm commitments, ensuring any new foundry capacity is tied to revenue certainty.</li>
</ul>


Engineering work continues on the 14A, but further capacity expansion is on hold until a major external customer commits.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan is prioritising balance sheet strength and shareholder returns after years of aggressive capex.
Intel would only expand PPE upon firm commitments, ensuring any new foundry capacity is tied to revenue certainty.


Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 - August 1.</li>
<li>
<strong>OVERSOLD</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> are just mildly oversold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is oversold.</li>
<li>
<strong>OVERBOUGHT</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 - August 1.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) are just mildly oversold, NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is oversold.

OVERBOUGHT: Amazon (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) , NVIDIA (NVDA US) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Hang Seng Index , Nikkei 225 INDEX 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

Price Gauge
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Amazon (AMZN US)

[Earnings Review] Arm’s AI Royalty Engine Powers Through Cloud and Edge Tailwinds

Record Q1 royalties, surging Neoverse share, and premium CSS adoption reinforce Arm’s AI platform strategy, even as the quarter missed revenue...

Mint Finance

Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Magnificent 7: Global Fund Positioning Update

Positioning in the Magnificent 7 remains near record highs, but momentum is fading as growth funds top out and value remains sidelined.

Steven Holden

Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Mint Finance

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] Arm’s AI Royalty Engine Powers Through Cloud and Edge Tailwinds

Record Q1 royalties, surging Neoverse share, and premium CSS adoption reinforce Arm’s AI platform strategy, even as the quarter missed revenue...

Mint Finance

Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

​Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Magnificent 7: Global Fund Positioning Update

Positioning in the Magnificent 7 remains near record highs, but momentum is fading as growth funds top out and value remains sidelined.

Steven Holden

Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

​Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Mint Finance

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

​Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...

Nico Rosti

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...