Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore fell 4.5% for the week ending 06/Feb as weak steel demand, rising Chinese port inventories, and a broader commodity risk-off sentiment outweighed steady blast furnace output.</li>
<li>BHP–Lundin’s Vicuña plans USD 800 million copper investment, Rio–Glencore talks collapsed, while Macquarie lifted Fortescue to Neutral.</li>
<li>SGX iron ore prices remain below short-term MAs but show signs of stabilisation, with Bollinger exhaustion and range formation pointing to a potential near-term rebound.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore fell 4.5% for the week ending 06/Feb as weak steel demand, rising Chinese port inventories, and a broader commodity risk-off sentiment outweighed steady blast furnace output.
BHP–Lundin’s Vicuña plans USD 800 million copper investment, Rio–Glencore talks collapsed, while Macquarie lifted Fortescue to Neutral.
SGX iron ore prices remain below short-term MAs but show signs of stabilisation, with Bollinger exhaustion and range formation pointing to a potential near-term rebound.


Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

<ul>
<li>Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.</li>
<li>BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.</li>
<li>Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.
BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.
Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.


Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

<ul>
<li>Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. </li>
<li>In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.</li>
<li>After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. 
In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.
After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.


Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

Australia

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...

Mint Finance

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

​Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...

Mint Finance

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...