Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-x-nikkei-225-covered-call-etf-option-premium-reinvestment-type" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44483:1" rel="noopener">Global X Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF (2858 JP)</a> has outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> year-to-date with a 4.5% advantage, demonstrating strength in sideways and moderately declining markets.</li>
<li>The covered call strategy can be deployed as a tactical standalone in sideways markets or as a relative value approach against a Nikkei 225 short.</li>
<li>For investors anticipating a continuation of the sideways or declining market, the option roll-over on the open of <strong>March 14 </strong>offers timely entry.</li>
</ul>


The Global X Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF (2858 JP) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) year-to-date with a 4.5% advantage, demonstrating strength in sideways and moderately declining markets.
The covered call strategy can be deployed as a tactical standalone in sideways markets or as a relative value approach against a Nikkei 225 short.
For investors anticipating a continuation of the sideways or declining market, the option roll-over on the open of March 14 offers timely entry.


The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei </a><a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">225</a>” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.</li>
<li>As per the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/file/nikkei_stock_average_guidebook_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook</a> (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.</li>
<li>The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. </li>
</ul>


On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.
As per the Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.
The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. 


Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US markets fall as tech stocks slide – Fed holds rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while Tesla rises despite weak results.</li>
<li>Fed cautious on inflation and rates – Officials see trade and immigration pressures, inflation remains elevated, job market solid, and a higher bar for further rate cuts.</li>
<li>Strong earnings from Japan Inc.  – Advantest's profit up 2.7x, Makita's net profit up 65%,  &amp; Shin Etsu's profit rises 6%.</li>
</ul>


US markets fall as tech stocks slide – Fed holds rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while Tesla rises despite weak results.
Fed cautious on inflation and rates – Officials see trade and immigration pressures, inflation remains elevated, job market solid, and a higher bar for further rate cuts.
Strong earnings from Japan Inc.  – Advantest's profit up 2.7x, Makita's net profit up 65%,  &amp; Shin Etsu's profit rises 6%.


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

<ul>
<li>With 3 days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has a 11.29% weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. That means double capping in March.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.</li>
<li>Double capping will result in big selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.</li>
</ul>


With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

This Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF has outperformed the market by 7.9% over the past six months. March 14 provides a timely entry point for either a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

US markets fall on tech stock slide despite Fed holding rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

​This Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF has outperformed the market by 7.9% over the past six months. March 14 provides a timely entry point for either a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

​US markets fall on tech stock slide despite Fed holding rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

This Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF has outperformed the market by 7.9% over the past six months. March 14 provides a timely entry point for either a...

US markets fall on tech stock slide despite Fed holding rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while...