Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO (6146 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1" rel="noopener">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-osaka-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20460:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a>'s PAF will increase from 0.3 to 0.5, and surprisingly there is no PAF adjustment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 1-18 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 2.7-28 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



DISCO (6146 JP), Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO (3092 JP) will replace Takara Holdings (2531 JP), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232 JP) and Pacific Metals (5541 JP) in the Nikkei 225.

Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s PAF will increase from 0.3 to 0.5, and surprisingly there is no PAF adjustment for ZOZO Inc (3092 JP). 
Passive trackers need to buy between 1-18 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 2.7-28 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ferrotec's production of 150mm wafers in China has increased &gt;6x since 2019</li>
<li>Siltronic's production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable</li>
<li>China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. </li>
</ul>


Ferrotec's production of 150mm wafers in China has increased &gt;6x since 2019
Siltronic's production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable
China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. 


Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> notes that the pre-condition for JIC’s tender has been satisfied. The offer price remains unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. </li>
<li>The offer remains attractive despite the material re-rating of peers. The tender should succeed when combined with shareholder fatigue and a lack of vocal opposition. </li>
<li>The tender requires a 66.7% minority acceptance rate. The gross and annualised spread for a 23 April payment is 0.6% and 7.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP) notes that the pre-condition for JIC’s tender has been satisfied. The offer price remains unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. 
The offer remains attractive despite the material re-rating of peers. The tender should succeed when combined with shareholder fatigue and a lack of vocal opposition. 
The tender requires a 66.7% minority acceptance rate. The gross and annualised spread for a 23 April payment is 0.6% and 7.1%, respectively.


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

The adds are all up since announcement, led by Zozo. Nitori is up too even though the upweight was knows. Two of the three deletes are lower....

Brian Freitas

Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Ferrotec's 150mm capacity in China >6x since 2019. Siltronic's 150mm & smaller wafers no longer profitable.China likely now self-sufficient in...

William Keating

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.

Sumeet Singh

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating

The offer remains attractive despite the material re-rating of peers. The gross and annualised spread for a 23 April payment is 0.6% and 7.1%,...

Arun George

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