Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semi-Cap higher after positive comments from JPM on ASML that the worst is behind it given strong WFE and memory trends.</li>
<li>Wafer names surging globally as demand for memory outstrips supply, while Wolfspeed announces its has reached 200m SiC capability.</li>
<li>A brave short seller for Coreweave calling it a “debt fuelled GPU rental business with no moat”.</li>
</ul>


Semi-Cap higher after positive comments from JPM on ASML that the worst is behind it given strong WFE and memory trends.
Wafer names surging globally as demand for memory outstrips supply, while Wolfspeed announces its has reached 200m SiC capability.
A brave short seller for Coreweave calling it a “debt fuelled GPU rental business with no moat”.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Plateauing Ahead of Fed, but Semi's Still Managing to Tick Higher

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.</li>
<li>
Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.

Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.

Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

<ul>
<li>Huge +18% move for Sandisk will help Japan's memory complex leg higher.</li>
<li>Networking developer Ciena jumped 23% after blow-out numbers while Broadcom beats after-hours.</li>
<li>10-Year yield dropping below its recent supports helps home builders higher while Shin Etsu continues to underwhelm.</li>
</ul>


Huge +18% move for Sandisk will help Japan's memory complex leg higher.
Networking developer Ciena jumped 23% after blow-out numbers while Broadcom beats after-hours.
10-Year yield dropping below its recent supports helps home builders higher while Shin Etsu continues to underwhelm.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Storms Higher on a Raft of Positive Earnings and Bullish NAND Outlook

<ul>
<li>Big jump in US homebuilders and chemical names involved in PVC/housing should jump start Shin Etsu.</li>
<li>Toto increasing its US production capacity aligns with its pivot away from China and makes this more interesting as housing play.</li>
<li>Meta's huge capex spending plans not enough to satisfy its need for AI computing as it buys capacity from Google.</li>
</ul>


Big jump in US homebuilders and chemical names involved in PVC/housing should jump start Shin Etsu.
Toto increasing its US production capacity aligns with its pivot away from China and makes this more interesting as housing play.
Meta's huge capex spending plans not enough to satisfy its need for AI computing as it buys capacity from Google.


Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Rise with the Rhetoric from Powell More Dovish than Expected

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.</li>
<li>Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.</li>
<li>A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.
Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.
A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!


SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Plateauing Ahead of Fed, but Semi's Still Managing to Tick Higher

Apple suppliers sent higher after announcement of Apple involvement with IC packaging. Power and industrial semi's shaking off China's anti-dumping...

Andrew Jackson

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Storms Higher on a Raft of Positive Earnings and Bullish NAND Outlook

Lynx equity strategies research sent NAND related higher in the US, watch JP memory names today. Drop in 10-year yield will help homebuilders....

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Rise with the Rhetoric from Powell More Dovish than Expected

Housing stocks surged after Powell'a comments in Wyoming, Toto should benefit from this improved sentiment. Meta struck a deal with Google for AI...

Andrew Jackson

SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!

William Keating

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