Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week as the Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> closes today. Will Fudosan extend? Possibly. Will they bump? Unlikely. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week as the Tender Offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) closes today. Will Fudosan extend? Possibly. Will they bump? Unlikely. 
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: On Toyota Inds (6201 JP)'s Last Day Of Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The first closing date of Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is 12 February. Shares continue to trade above terms.</li>
<li>Ahead of the first close, internal and external factors have continued to underscore that the offer is light.</li>
<li>There are several potential scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and additional irrevocables. The least likely scenario is successful completion.</li>
</ul>


The first closing date of Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is 12 February. Shares continue to trade above terms.
Ahead of the first close, internal and external factors have continued to underscore that the offer is light.
There are several potential scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and additional irrevocables. The least likely scenario is successful completion.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Scenarios Ahead of the First Close

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The fact <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is only 4+% through terms is an indication investors are unconvinced blocking this deal gets a good governance result. That's bad. </li>
<li>Remember TICO+Toyota Group were already unwinding cross-holdings. The original docs said they'd agreed. I doubt they un-agree. The transaction WITH buybacks WITHOUT takeover (or restructuring) has a BVPS of ¥28,855.</li>
<li>If the benefits of uplift are shared with Toyota and all Crossholders, they receive an extra ¥385bn and ¥159bn and post-deal minority BVPS is "just" ¥25,549. Best outcome? Deal break.</li>
</ul>


The fact Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is only 4+% through terms is an indication investors are unconvinced blocking this deal gets a good governance result. That's bad. 
Remember TICO+Toyota Group were already unwinding cross-holdings. The original docs said they'd agreed. I doubt they un-agree. The transaction WITH buybacks WITHOUT takeover (or restructuring) has a BVPS of ¥28,855.
If the benefits of uplift are shared with Toyota and all Crossholders, they receive an extra ¥385bn and ¥159bn and post-deal minority BVPS is "just" ¥25,549. Best outcome? Deal break.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Last Looks

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a> H Share listing; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a> placement.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/br-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19365:1" rel="noopener">Br Holdings (1726 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Montage Technology (6809 HK) H Share listing; Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP) placement.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Br Holdings (1726 JP), MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (08 Feb) - Toyota Ind, Br Holdings, MCJ, Raksul, Guocoland, Montage, Kandenko

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Aura's scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> and backdoor listing; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a>'s selective capital reduction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apiam-animal-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26109:1" rel="noopener">Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube (QUB AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp (IJM MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Aura's scrip Offer for Qoria (QOR AU) and backdoor listing; and GuocoLand (GUOL SP)'s selective capital reduction for Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK).
Key updates/news also took place on: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Humm (HUM AU), Qube (QUB AU),Medical Data Vision (3902 JP), Raksul (4384 JP), and Ijm Corp (IJM MK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Qoria, Guocoland Malaysia, Humm, Qube, Medical Data Vision, Raksul, IJM

Japan

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

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Toyota Industries (6201 JP)

StubWorld: On Toyota Inds (6201 JP)'s Last Day Of Offer

Don’t tender. If in, stay in. Get involved if not in. Fudosan may extend. But don’t expect a bump. Fudosan has made it clear it will not offer a...

David Blennerhassett