Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Aura's scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> and backdoor listing; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a>'s selective capital reduction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apiam-animal-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26109:1" rel="noopener">Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube (QUB AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp (IJM MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Aura's scrip Offer for Qoria (QOR AU) and backdoor listing; and GuocoLand (GUOL SP)'s selective capital reduction for Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK).
Key updates/news also took place on: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Humm (HUM AU), Qube (QUB AU),Medical Data Vision (3902 JP), Raksul (4384 JP), and Ijm Corp (IJM MK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Qoria, Guocoland Malaysia, Humm, Qube, Medical Data Vision, Raksul, IJM

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF's average buy price is &lt;¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.</li>
<li>But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still. </li>
<li>Post-Close today, BidCo said "[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]". That tells me and many others, Bidco isn't the right buyer. </li>
</ul>


This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF's average buy price is &lt;¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.
But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still. 
Post-Close today, BidCo said "[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]". That tells me and many others, Bidco isn't the right buyer. 


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.</li>
<li>Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.</li>
<li>Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum. </li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.
Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.
Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum. 


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?

<ul>
<li>TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.</li>
<li>There were case study updates published late-Dec25. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 146 CGRs were filed in January after 475 in December 2025. It's low season til spring.</li>
<li>The ongoing Study Group to review Minority Shareholder Protection, etc has interim comments suggesting Toyota Fudosan's claim of Majority of Minority is false (of course it is, but they're nicer).</li>
</ul>


TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
There were case study updates published late-Dec25. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 146 CGRs were filed in January after 475 in December 2025. It's low season til spring.
The ongoing Study Group to review Minority Shareholder Protection, etc has interim comments suggesting Toyota Fudosan's claim of Majority of Minority is false (of course it is, but they're nicer).


[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Feb26) - Disappointing Case Studies, Weak Study Group

<ul>
<li>Elliott has <a href="https://elliottletters.com/toyota-industries/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">released a letter</a> urging shareholders to reject Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Elliott’s letter makes both sensible (the offer is below 3Q book value, with limited downside risk on a deal break) and outlandish (the standalone plan is worth JPY40,000) assertions.</li>
<li>There is a good chance of a further bump (to JPY21,000), as an offer below the 3Q book value (disclosed on 3 February) will give Elliott’s campaign a huge boost.   </li>
</ul>


Elliott has released a letter urging shareholders to reject Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Elliott’s letter makes both sensible (the offer is below 3Q book value, with limited downside risk on a deal break) and outlandish (the standalone plan is worth JPY40,000) assertions.
There is a good chance of a further bump (to JPY21,000), as an offer below the 3Q book value (disclosed on 3 February) will give Elliott’s campaign a huge boost.   


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Evaluating Elliott’s Letter

Japan

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

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Toyota Industries (6201 JP)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Qoria, Guocoland Malaysia, Humm, Qube, Medical Data Vision, Raksul, IJM

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

Elliott today made a technical filing, with a slightly larger position (7.14% vs 6.65%) They bought shares at a pace of 5-7bp of outstanding per...

Travis Lundy