Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is at its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. The "simple ratio" (JCNC/Astra) is the highest outside a Covid blip.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is at its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. The "simple ratio" (JCNC/Astra) is the highest outside a Covid blip.
Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Fitch/Moody's Downgrades Further Propel JCNC's Implied Stub

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 </li>
<li>Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings</li>
<li>Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon</li>
</ul>


Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 
Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings
Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

<ul>
<li>The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y</li>
<li>But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period</li>
<li>Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares</li>
</ul>


The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y
But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period
Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares


Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

<ul>
<li>Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air</li>
<li>By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y</li>
<li>Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient</li>
</ul>


Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air
By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y
Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient


December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

Hong Kong

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is a multinational hospitality and management group that owns and operates luxury hotels, resorts, and residences across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company also engages in hotel and residences branding, management, and property development activities, offering luxury accommodations, fine dining, and wellness facilities. It was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

StubWorld: Fitch/Moody's Downgrades Further Propel JCNC's Implied Stub

Fitch's, Moody's and MSCI's Indo conclusions are a material overhang. I'd still be reluctant to reverse the stub, as Asta underperforms (down 14%...

David Blennerhassett

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Top-line growth accelerated in Q425, but margin compression persisted. Management's poor cost control is frustrating, and an ongoing investigation...

Tracking Traffic

Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

For the month of Jan 2026, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$8bn. The average premium for these new deals...

David Blennerhassett

December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

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