Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The year 2020 was a wild swing for the capital markets; it was off in a flash but still won't be forgotten by many. It was a year marked by unpredictability, right from Covid-19 to the crashing of indices. It was a challenge to many, but still the year has uncovered several new, differentiated potholes for many companies on corporate governance, accounting engineering. We have provided critical views on few of the companies on these two aspects. 
Going forward we will continue to provide critical views on the companies especially in our core area of corporate governance and forensic research. Beginning 2021, we will be covering the same through our product 'AGE Analysis' (Accounting. Governance. Earnings). We also look to enhance our reach in macro coverage, along with event driven insights.

The year 2020 was a wild swing for the capital markets; it was off in a flash but still won't be forgotten by many. It was a year marked by unpredictability, right from Covid-19 to the crashing of indices. It was a challenge to many, but still the year has uncovered several new, differentiated potholes for many companies on corporate governance, accounting engineering. We have provided critical views on few of the companies on these two aspects. 
Going forward we will continue to provide critical views on the companies especially in our core area of corporate governance and forensic research. Beginning 2021, we will be covering the same through our product 'AGE Analysis' (Accounting. Governance. Earnings). We also look to enhance our reach in macro coverage, along with event driven insights.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Huifu Payment, Vedanta, Cardinal Resources, Jih Sun Finance

Travis Lundy

The Vedanta promoter <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22202:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Resources (VED LN)</a> unit Vedanta Holdings Mauritius II has announced an Accelerated Purchase of Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>.The promoter seeks to buy in an Offer To Buy ~185 million shares or 4.98% of shares outstanding at a price between INR 150.45 - 160.00/share (a 0.0% to 6.3% premium to the BSE close of INR 150.45 today 23 December).This comes a short time after the parent raised funds at 13% to lengthen the existing debt schedule by repaying debt maturing earlier. This event is not completely unexpected.

The Vedanta promoter Vedanta Resources (VED LN) unit Vedanta Holdings Mauritius II has announced an Accelerated Purchase of Shares of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN).The promoter seeks to buy in an Offer To Buy ~185 million shares or 4.98% of shares outstanding at a price between INR 150.45 - 160.00/share (a 0.0% to 6.3% premium to the BSE close of INR 150.45 today 23 December).This comes a short time after the parent raised funds at 13% to lengthen the existing debt schedule by repaying debt maturing earlier. This event is not completely unexpected.  

Vedanta Promoter Launches Offer to Buy 4.98%

Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, Tokyo Dome, Cowell, Infratil, Link Admin, Sapporo/Asahi, Mcdonald's

About eight weeks ago, immediately after the Reverse Book Build Auction for the Delisting Exit Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> failed and then about 10 days after the failure I wrote a pair of insights looking at what might happen next. In the first - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedl-delisting-fail-day1-reading-between-the-lines-of-the-trading-data" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44103" rel="noopener">VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data</a> on 12 October, I pointed out six possible reactions by VEDL and VEDR (Vedanta Resources). My preferred choice was that VEDL would use the money it had raised recently to conduct an Open Offer Buyback to reduce "leakage" of the benefits of share ownership to outside parties (principally, the pass-through dividends from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> and the 30% payout ratio of the other non-HZ businesses which are part of the Dividend Distribution Policy), using the excuse that a large percentage of the ownership had shown that they wanted to sell at INR 135-140/share.VEDL was cheap even at the forecast depressed earnings level, and it "owed" cash to its shareholders.The stock was cheap (the close that day was INR 96.95), so it was a buy. Eight days later in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-limited-caught-in-economic-purgatory-but-governance-hell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44350" rel="noopener">Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell?</a> I discussed the issue of VEDL having "fallen" in Dante's Inferno but might have walked itself back up through the maze to Purgatory economically, while its lending of funds to its parent Vedanta Resources represented ongoing governance faults.Hindustan Zinc had just announced an INR 21.3/share dividend which meant VEDL "owed" INR 25+/share to its own shareholders this fiscal year as the pass-through, and while its global peers had seen both share prices and forward multiples bounce, VEDL was at its cheapest level against peers in many, many years, with ongoing desire by the VEDR parent to fix its leakage problem.Governance was clearly a problem, but the stock was cheap, so it was a buy.Eight weeks later, as I write, the stock is at INR 142.00. Including the INR 9.5/share dividend paid, the value to shareholders from that 12 October post-RBB failure is +56%. Including the dividend, the stock is INR 10/share higher than it got in the runup to the Reverse Book Build, Then we got a dividend announcement from VEDL, H1 earnings, amended forecasts, an activist/complaining shareholder, and more news of funding issues and corporate action potential at the parent. The stock is now, as I write is INR 143.55. Including INR 9.5 dividend paid, the value to shareholders from that 12 October post-RBB failure is +57% in eight weeks. Including the previous dividend, VEDL is up single digits year-to-date. A Basket of Peers is +41% ytd. This insight discusses where we stand.

About eight weeks ago, immediately after the Reverse Book Build Auction for the Delisting Exit Offer for Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) failed and then about 10 days after the failure I wrote a pair of insights looking at what might happen next. In the first - VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data on 12 October, I pointed out six possible reactions by VEDL and VEDR (Vedanta Resources). My preferred choice was that VEDL would use the money it had raised recently to conduct an Open Offer Buyback to reduce "leakage" of the benefits of share ownership to outside parties (principally, the pass-through dividends from Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) and the 30% payout ratio of the other non-HZ businesses which are part of the Dividend Distribution Policy), using the excuse that a large percentage of the ownership had shown that they wanted to sell at INR 135-140/share.VEDL was cheap even at the forecast depressed earnings level, and it "owed" cash to its shareholders.The stock was cheap (the close that day was INR 96.95), so it was a buy. Eight days later in Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell? I discussed the issue of VEDL having "fallen" in Dante's Inferno but might have walked itself back up through the maze to Purgatory economically, while its lending of funds to its parent Vedanta Resources represented ongoing governance faults.Hindustan Zinc had just announced an INR 21.3/share dividend which meant VEDL "owed" INR 25+/share to its own shareholders this fiscal year as the pass-through, and while its global peers had seen both share prices and forward multiples bounce, VEDL was at its cheapest level against peers in many, many years, with ongoing desire by the VEDR parent to fix its leakage problem.Governance was clearly a problem, but the stock was cheap, so it was a buy.Eight weeks later, as I write, the stock is at INR 142.00. Including the INR 9.5/share dividend paid, the value to shareholders from that 12 October post-RBB failure is +56%. Including the dividend, the stock is INR 10/share higher than it got in the runup to the Reverse Book Build, Then we got a dividend announcement from VEDL, H1 earnings, amended forecasts, an activist/complaining shareholder, and more news of funding issues and corporate action potential at the parent. The stock is now, as I write is INR 143.55. Including INR 9.5 dividend paid, the value to shareholders from that 12 October post-RBB failure is +57% in eight weeks. Including the previous dividend, VEDL is up single digits year-to-date. A Basket of Peers is +41% ytd. This insight discusses where we stand. 

Vedanta Vaulting Near 2020 Highs On Higher Commods, Higher Forecasts, But Open Offer Remote?

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)

Review for the Year 2020

We review our entire cloud of insights covered in 2020, and give a snapshot of how did they pay out in the market, including future prospects.

Nitin Mangal

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Huifu Payment, Vedanta, Cardinal Resources, Jih Sun Finance

The weekend is upon us - pour yourself some coffee (or mulled wine) and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during...

David Blennerhassett

Vedanta Promoter Launches Offer to Buy 4.98%

The Vedanta Limited (VEDL) promoter has launched an Offer to Purchase 4.98% of shares out. This is the limit in the current FY and it puts back the...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, Tokyo Dome, Cowell, Infratil, Link Admin, Sapporo/Asahi, Mcdonald's

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Vedanta Vaulting Near 2020 Highs On Higher Commods, Higher Forecasts, But Open Offer Remote?

Vedanta Ltd is up 55+% in eight weeks since the failed RBB. EBIT forecasts are up just as much, and a Peer Basket is now >40%ytd. An Open Offer...

Travis Lundy

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