Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Enormous intraday moves off the lows for likes of Coreweave and Palantir sets stage for more strength than tape suggests.</li>
<li>Analog Devices numbers show much needed strength for Automotive segment. Positive for Renesas, Rohm and Fuji.</li>
<li>Estee Lauder numbers disappoint with China and TR sales failing to keep up with market expectations.</li>
</ul>


Enormous intraday moves off the lows for likes of Coreweave and Palantir sets stage for more strength than tape suggests.
Analog Devices numbers show much needed strength for Automotive segment. Positive for Renesas, Rohm and Fuji.
Estee Lauder numbers disappoint with China and TR sales failing to keep up with market expectations.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Stage a Big Rally off the Lows as Dip Buying Takes Hold

<ul>
<li>AMAT number after market missed showing a slowdown in Chinese demand and licensing delays.</li>
<li>INTC news positive for SPE suppliers but demand will be tempered in light of AMAT.</li>
<li>Coach owner taking a hit on tariff costs sends a warning to likes of Este Lauder who reports next week.</li>
</ul>


AMAT number after market missed showing a slowdown in Chinese demand and licensing delays.
INTC news positive for SPE suppliers but demand will be tempered in light of AMAT.
Coach owner taking a hit on tariff costs sends a warning to likes of Este Lauder who reports next week.


Japan Morning Connection: US Looking to Take a Stage in INTC Will Ensure Fab Ambitions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

<ul>
<li>Chip tester Teradyne jumping on reports it has a new FA arm.</li>
<li>Intel admitting its now not even in the top-10 chipmakers anymore.</li>
<li>Estee lauder strength may help Shiseido with better trends in Hainan reported.</li>
</ul>


Chip tester Teradyne jumping on reports it has a new FA arm.
Intel admitting its now not even in the top-10 chipmakers anymore.
Estee lauder strength may help Shiseido with better trends in Hainan reported.


Japan Morning Connection: Airlines Surging After Delta Numbers Helping SPX Close at New Records

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>
Shiseido: Weak sales in China and Travel Retail hurt performance, but cost-cutting and deep-value appeal raise potential for turnaround or takeover.  </li>
<li>
Ricoh: Effissimo bets on Ricoh's slow pivot to digital services; low valuation offers downside protection despite unclear timeline for ROE recovery.</li>
<li>
Orico: Strategic Capital targets Mizuho affiliate for underperformance and insider-led governance, pushing for reform and better capital discipline.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido: Weak sales in China and Travel Retail hurt performance, but cost-cutting and deep-value appeal raise potential for turnaround or takeover.  

Ricoh: Effissimo bets on Ricoh's slow pivot to digital services; low valuation offers downside protection despite unclear timeline for ROE recovery.

Orico: Strategic Capital targets Mizuho affiliate for underperformance and insider-led governance, pushing for reform and better capital discipline.


Japan Activist Watch | Shiseido, Ricoh, Orico, Anicom

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Stage a Big Rally off the Lows as Dip Buying Takes Hold

Samsung's HBM chips finally ready for pre-production. Analog Devices should boost power/analog semi names. Estee Lauder disappoints with China...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Looking to Take a Stage in INTC Will Ensure Fab Ambitions

US talks about a stake in Intel to boost US chipmaking, a positive for those involved in Intel's SPE supply chain. Estee Lauder down on concerns...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Airlines Surging After Delta Numbers Helping SPX Close at New Records

Delta's earnings report causes airlines and cruise ships to jump. Tesla's plans for its robotaxi and Ai chatbot may be enough to help the...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Activist Watch | Shiseido, Ricoh, Orico, Anicom

Shiseido is either a turnaround or takeover target. Ricoh's slow move to digital services attracts interest, while Orico is targeted for reform by...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Stage a Big Rally off the Lows as Dip Buying Takes Hold

Samsung's HBM chips finally ready for pre-production. Analog Devices should boost power/analog semi names. Estee Lauder disappoints with China...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Looking to Take a Stage in INTC Will Ensure Fab Ambitions

US talks about a stake in Intel to boost US chipmaking, a positive for those involved in Intel's SPE supply chain. Estee Lauder down on concerns...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Airlines Surging After Delta Numbers Helping SPX Close at New Records

Delta's earnings report causes airlines and cruise ships to jump. Tesla's plans for its robotaxi and Ai chatbot may be enough to help the...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Activist Watch | Shiseido, Ricoh, Orico, Anicom

​Shiseido is either a turnaround or takeover target. Ricoh's slow move to digital services attracts interest, while Orico is targeted for reform by...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido is either a turnaround or takeover target. Ricoh's slow move to digital services attracts interest, while Orico is targeted for reform by...