Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.</li>
<li>Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. </li>
<li>Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.</li>
</ul>


The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.
Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. 
Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.


What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

<ul>
<li>Very impressive. 1H26 revenue growth ~35%, Operating Profits growth ~58% YoY (guidance). 1H26 Net Income growth ~54% (my estimate). Consensus will keep revising up.</li>
<li>Capacity is tight, 2026 Capex will be at high-end of guidance ($56bn), TSMC announced 3 new N3 Fabs, “doing everything” they can to speed up capacity ramp.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML trade at +1 stdev above average. TSMC is a lot cheaper trading at 20.4x forward EPS (forward means 12 months forward or April 2027) vs ASML 40x.</li>
</ul>


Very impressive. 1H26 revenue growth ~35%, Operating Profits growth ~58% YoY (guidance). 1H26 Net Income growth ~54% (my estimate). Consensus will keep revising up.
Capacity is tight, 2026 Capex will be at high-end of guidance ($56bn), TSMC announced 3 new N3 Fabs, “doing everything” they can to speed up capacity ramp.
TSMC and ASML trade at +1 stdev above average. TSMC is a lot cheaper trading at 20.4x forward EPS (forward means 12 months forward or April 2027) vs ASML 40x.


TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) / Equity Capital Markets

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) (2476 HK)

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,400+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we evaluate the supply-side risks to agri-commodities, sift through a flurry of China hard-tech IPOs, and unpack Sumitomo Pharma's massive share placement. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,400+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we evaluate the supply-side risks to agri-commodities, sift through a flurry of China hard-tech IPOs, and unpack Sumitomo Pharma's massive share placement. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Soft Commodities' Hard Truths, Pricing China's Hi-Tech & Sumitomo Pharma's Placement

<ul>
<li>3nm and below now accounts for 48% of total revenue, up from near-zero two years ago, as TSMC affiliate GUC becomes the go-to partner for hyperscaler custom silicon</li>
<li>Full-Year revenue grew 36% to NT$34.1bn, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry as custom AI chip demand accelerates</li>
<li>Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly discussed or deployed custom chips for AI inference and training, and GUC's results suggest these programs are reaching meaningful volume.</li>
</ul>


3nm and below now accounts for 48% of total revenue, up from near-zero two years ago, as TSMC affiliate GUC becomes the go-to partner for hyperscaler custom silicon
Full-Year revenue grew 36% to NT$34.1bn, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry as custom AI chip demand accelerates
Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly discussed or deployed custom chips for AI inference and training, and GUC's results suggest these programs are reaching meaningful volume.


GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Nicolas Baratte

Curator's Cut: Soft Commodities' Hard Truths, Pricing China's Hi-Tech & Sumitomo Pharma's Placement

This Curator's Cut highlights supply-side risks in agri-commodities, China hard-tech IPOs, and Sumitomo Pharma's share placement. Share your topic...

Pranav Rao

GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

​The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

​Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Nicolas Baratte

Curator's Cut: Soft Commodities' Hard Truths, Pricing China's Hi-Tech & Sumitomo Pharma's Placement

​This Curator's Cut highlights supply-side risks in agri-commodities, China hard-tech IPOs, and Sumitomo Pharma's share placement. Share your topic...

Pranav Rao

GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

​TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

This Curator's Cut highlights supply-side risks in agri-commodities, China hard-tech IPOs, and Sumitomo Pharma's share placement. Share your topic...

TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...