Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.</li>
<li>Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.</li>
<li>Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.
Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.
Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.


ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.</li>
<li>China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.</li>
<li>We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.</li>
</ul>


Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.
China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.


Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

<ul>
<li>Broad declines set a cautious tone as only a handful of single stocks avoided losses last week amid rising option volumes.</li>
<li>Market breadth deteriorated sharply, marking the weakest showing of the past year and highlighting the pressure across Hong Kong equities.</li>
<li>We highlight companies reporting next week in what shapes up as a busy week ahead with Baba and Meituan both reporting.</li>
</ul>


Broad declines set a cautious tone as only a handful of single stocks avoided losses last week amid rising option volumes.
Market breadth deteriorated sharply, marking the weakest showing of the past year and highlighting the pressure across Hong Kong equities.
We highlight companies reporting next week in what shapes up as a busy week ahead with Baba and Meituan both reporting.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Strong Nvidia beat reinforces strength in demand environment for AI. </li><li>Nvidia’s 3QFY26 results materially exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue of $57.0 billion (+22% Q/Q, +62% Y/Y) versus Street estimates of ~$54.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.30 versus Street estimates of $1.25.</li><li>Data center revenue of $51.2 billion handily surpassed consensus of ~$49.0 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue and underscoring sustained enterprise AI adoption.</li></ul></div>

Strong Nvidia beat reinforces strength in demand environment for AI. Nvidia’s 3QFY26 results materially exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue of $57.0 billion (+22% Q/Q, +62% Y/Y) versus Street estimates of ~$54.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.30 versus Street estimates of $1.25.Data center revenue of $51.2 billion handily surpassed consensus of ~$49.0 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue and underscoring sustained enterprise AI adoption.

Nvidia Earnings Read-Across; Now for Something (Very) Different!

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Stronger-than-expected 3Q25 earnings and an upbeat 4Q25 revenue outlook from NVIDIA triggered a broad rally across global equity markets, including the SET.</li><li>The intraday rally followed by a pullback, which left a long upper shadow, serves as a warning signal that the index may correct further.</li><li>The index is expected to rebound, but the upside is likely limited with higher volatility.</li></ul>

Stronger-than-expected 3Q25 earnings and an upbeat 4Q25 revenue outlook from NVIDIA triggered a broad rally across global equity markets, including the SET.The intraday rally followed by a pullback, which left a long upper shadow, serves as a warning signal that the index may correct further.The index is expected to rebound, but the upside is likely limited with higher volatility.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. November 21, 2025

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior

Overall higher implied vols, a similar earnings move to last Q and a pattern of uneven Q2 results frame a cautious setup for Baba’s upcoming...

John Ley

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise

Hong Kong single stocks faced sharp declines and the weakest breadth of the year, while option flows strengthened and implied vols softened.

John Ley

Nvidia Earnings Read-Across; Now for Something (Very) Different!

Nvidia’s 3QFY26 results materially exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue of $57.0 billion (+22% Q/Q, +62% Y/Y) versus Street estimates of...

Water Tower Research

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. November 21, 2025

Stronger-than-expected 3Q25 earnings and an upbeat 4Q25 revenue outlook from NVIDIA triggered a broad rally across global equity markets, including...

Krungthai XSpring

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