Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors and AI chips have become a geopolitical tool, between the US and China but also between the US and the Rest of the World (Biden’s Jan-25 limitations by country).</li>
<li>This has led to an increase in Chinese R&amp;D in Semiconductors since 2020. In particular 3 areas: AI chips, production equipment, small geometries below 7nm. This article reviews recent announcements.</li>
<li>Rush orders for Nvidia H20 GPU since Jan-25. Loongsoon breakthru AI chip. SMIC starting 5nm production in 2025. SiCarrier announced EUV lithography machine.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors and AI chips have become a geopolitical tool, between the US and China but also between the US and the Rest of the World (Biden’s Jan-25 limitations by country).
This has led to an increase in Chinese R&amp;D in Semiconductors since 2020. In particular 3 areas: AI chips, production equipment, small geometries below 7nm. This article reviews recent announcements.
Rush orders for Nvidia H20 GPU since Jan-25. Loongsoon breakthru AI chip. SMIC starting 5nm production in 2025. SiCarrier announced EUV lithography machine.


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The logic behind the tariff is not just a slap in the face for a lot of other nations but also net imports over exports. </li>
<li>Companies benefitting from the globalization will suffer, and the ones with domestic-centric businesses with real assets in proximity may be less hurt. </li>
<li>This could accelerate the forming of new trading bloc that may change the current world order. </li>
</ul>


The logic behind the tariff is not just a slap in the face for a lot of other nations but also net imports over exports. 
Companies benefitting from the globalization will suffer, and the ones with domestic-centric businesses with real assets in proximity may be less hurt. 
This could accelerate the forming of new trading bloc that may change the current world order. 


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a>'s 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.</li>
<li>The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GOTO</a> remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.
The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.

GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Entering New Territory

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Delta Thailand Has Dramatically Underperformed Delta Taiwan — Delta Thailand Now Finally Trading at a Less Extreme Level vs. Delta Taiwan</li>
<li>Latest Relative Growth Profiles — Delta Taiwan Has Higher Growth Profile in 2025E</li>
<li>Even After the Major Pricing Reversion Since Mid-February, Delta Thailand Remains Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan</li>
</ul>


Delta Thailand Has Dramatically Underperformed Delta Taiwan — Delta Thailand Now Finally Trading at a Less Extreme Level vs. Delta Taiwan
Latest Relative Growth Profiles — Delta Taiwan Has Higher Growth Profile in 2025E
Even After the Major Pricing Reversion Since Mid-February, Delta Thailand Remains Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Semiconductors and AI Servers in China

Geopolitical tensions drive Chinese R&D in semiconductors, with focus on AI chips and small geometries. Recent announcements include rush orders...

Nicolas Baratte

Tariff: New World Order?

Tariffs could shift global trade dynamics, favoring domestic-focused companies and potentially leading to the formation of new trading blocs.

Henry Soediarko

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Entering New Territory

GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from...

Angus Mackintosh

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive

Delta Thailand has significantly dropped compared to Delta Taiwan but is still overvalued even after recent price adjustments. Delta Taiwan has a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Semiconductors and AI Servers in China

​Geopolitical tensions drive Chinese R&D in semiconductors, with focus on AI chips and small geometries. Recent announcements include rush orders...

Nicolas Baratte

Tariff: New World Order?

​Tariffs could shift global trade dynamics, favoring domestic-focused companies and potentially leading to the formation of new trading blocs.

Henry Soediarko

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Entering New Territory

GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from...

Angus Mackintosh

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive

​Delta Thailand has significantly dropped compared to Delta Taiwan but is still overvalued even after recent price adjustments. Delta Taiwan has a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Geopolitical tensions drive Chinese R&D in semiconductors, with focus on AI chips and small geometries. Recent announcements include rush orders...

Tariffs could shift global trade dynamics, favoring domestic-focused companies and potentially leading to the formation of new trading blocs.

Delta Thailand has significantly dropped compared to Delta Taiwan but is still overvalued even after recent price adjustments. Delta Taiwan has a...