Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>Roughly 4 years ago, in Sep 2017, Taiwan-based financial services group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-development-financial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13818:1" rel="noopener">China Development Financial (2883 TT)</a> ("CDFHC") became the top shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:603:1" rel="noopener">China Life Insurance (2823 TT)</a> by launching a Tender Offer and acquiring a 25.33% stake for NT$30.8bn. At that time, China Life Insurance was the fifth largest insurance group in Taiwan.</p><p>Almost 3 years later, CDFHC made another Tender Offer to acquire an additional 21.1% stake in China Life Insurance for NT$23.6bn on 27th November 2020 increasing their direct shareholding to 47.3%. This Offer was completed in February 2021 and together with an 8.66% owned by a fully-owned subsidiary -  KGI securities - CDFHC collectively controlled around 56% in China Life Insurance. </p><p>Last week, on 12th August 2021, CDFHC announced a cash and scrip Deal to buy the remaining portion of China Life Insurance to take their ownership to 100% and delist the company from the Taiwan Stock Exchange.  </p><p>Under this Deal, China Life Insurance minority shareholders are expected to receive a combination of 0.80 CDFHC common shares, 0.73 CDFHC preferred shares, and NT$11.5 in cash for each share of China Life Insurance they own. The Deal is conditional on receiving shareholder approvals and regulatory approvals and is expected to complete by the end of this year. </p><div><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p></div><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p style="text-align: left;"><em>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-taiwan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30640" rel="noopener">Quiddity Taiwan M&amp;A Guide 2019</a></em></p></div></div></div>

Roughly 4 years ago, in Sep 2017, Taiwan-based financial services group China Development Financial (2883 TT) ("CDFHC") became the top shareholder of China Life Insurance (2823 TT) by launching a Tender Offer and acquiring a 25.33% stake for NT$30.8bn. At that time, China Life Insurance was the fifth largest insurance group in Taiwan.Almost 3 years later, CDFHC made another Tender Offer to acquire an additional 21.1% stake in China Life Insurance for NT$23.6bn on 27th November 2020 increasing their direct shareholding to 47.3%. This Offer was completed in February 2021 and together with an 8.66% owned by a fully-owned subsidiary -  KGI securities - CDFHC collectively controlled around 56% in China Life Insurance. Last week, on 12th August 2021, CDFHC announced a cash and scrip Deal to buy the remaining portion of China Life Insurance to take their ownership to 100% and delist the company from the Taiwan Stock Exchange.  Under this Deal, China Life Insurance minority shareholders are expected to receive a combination of 0.80 CDFHC common shares, 0.73 CDFHC preferred shares, and NT$11.5 in cash for each share of China Life Insurance they own. The Deal is conditional on receiving shareholder approvals and regulatory approvals and is expected to complete by the end of this year. More below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Taiwan M&amp;A Guide 2019

CDFHC - China Life Insurance: US$2bn+ Cash & Scrip Deal to Reach the Finish Line

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>*<strong><em>Improving Profitability: </em></strong>PICC Group (1339.HK) [People’s] reported 1Q21 net profit after tax of CNY 10.0 bn, increasing by a whopping CNY 8.7 bn mn (6.7x) on a linked quarter basis. The linked quarter improvement can be attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s improved CNY 4.4 bn (vs a loss of CNY 1.8 bn in 4Q20) and CNY 3.8 bn (156.3%) - accounting for 61% and 27% of the group's earnings;  and </p><p><strong><em>*PICC P&amp;C Posts Big Expense Improvement: </em></strong>PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) reported a 1Q21 net profit of CNY 8.9 bn, increasing 156.3% linked quarter. The overall combined ratio declined from 101.3% in 4Q20 to 95.7%. Compositionally, the overall expense ratio decreased 650 bp linked quarter to 25.4%, while the loss ratio increased 90 bp to 70.3%, reflecting a change in auto insurer’s cost structure after implementing pricing reforms. </p>

*Improving Profitability: PICC Group (1339.HK) [People’s] reported 1Q21 net profit after tax of CNY 10.0 bn, increasing by a whopping CNY 8.7 bn mn (6.7x) on a linked quarter basis. The linked quarter improvement can be attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s improved CNY 4.4 bn (vs a loss of CNY 1.8 bn in 4Q20) and CNY 3.8 bn (156.3%) - accounting for 61% and 27% of the group's earnings;  and *PICC P&amp;C Posts Big Expense Improvement: PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) reported a 1Q21 net profit of CNY 8.9 bn, increasing 156.3% linked quarter. The overall combined ratio declined from 101.3% in 4Q20 to 95.7%. Compositionally, the overall expense ratio decreased 650 bp linked quarter to 25.4%, while the loss ratio increased 90 bp to 70.3%, reflecting a change in auto insurer’s cost structure after implementing pricing reforms. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-poly-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3708:1" rel="noopener">Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, Information Technology, Communication Services and Health Care, and decreased on Real Estate.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-epson-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16793:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Epson (6724 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenkoku-hosho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5537:1" rel="noopener">Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19572:1" rel="noopener">Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Staples and Financials, while decreasing on Information Technology and Industrials.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electro-mechanics-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:539:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-daewoo-co-ltd-b50c4d95-1687-46cb-9b58-f79ce0e72670" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12061:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-sun-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:719:1" rel="noopener">E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17677:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Financial Holding Co (2882 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:603:1" rel="noopener">China Life Insurance (2823 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) while there was short covering on Smoore International (6969 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Haidilao (6862 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, Information Technology, Communication Services and Health Care, and decreased on Real Estate.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Seiko Epson (6724 JP), Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) while shorts decreased on Advantest Corp (6857 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP) and Anritsu Corp (6754 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Staples and Financials, while decreasing on Information Technology and Industrials.In Korea, there were short positions put on in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Doosan Infracore (042670 KS) and Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) while shorts were covered in Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS), Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS) and Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT), Taiwan Cement (1101 TT), Cathay Financial Holding Co (2882 TT) and China Life Insurance (2823 TT) while shorts were covered on Largan Precision (3008 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Walsin Technology (2492 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Tencent, Xiaomi, GCL Poly, Mobile, BYD, Lasertec, Advantest, Celltrion, Largan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>*Reversing Course Again:</em></strong> On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  </p><p><strong><em>*Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: </em></strong>Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have. </p>

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have. 

<p><strong><em>*Partnership With ZhongAn:</em></strong> AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] and ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn] majority owned ZA Tech Global (ZA Tech) subsidiary announced a regional strategic digital partnership. The partnership covers all of AIA’s markets excluding mainland China, and opens new regional sales opportunities for AIA;</p><p><strong><em>*Risks Remain: </em></strong>This new partnership, as potentially exciting as it is, in now way offsets the risks AIA is facing in mainland China, Hong Kong, and in its investment portfolio.</p>

*Partnership With ZhongAn: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] and ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn] majority owned ZA Tech Global (ZA Tech) subsidiary announced a regional strategic digital partnership. The partnership covers all of AIA’s markets excluding mainland China, and opens new regional sales opportunities for AIA;*Risks Remain: This new partnership, as potentially exciting as it is, in now way offsets the risks AIA is facing in mainland China, Hong Kong, and in its investment portfolio.

AIA Group – New Initiative Does Not Offset Risks

Taiwan

China Life Insurance Co., Ltd offers traditional life, health care, disability, and group insurance.  The Company also manages life insurance funds such as securities investment, real estate investment, foreign investment, and loan services.

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China Life Insurance (2823 TT)

CDFHC - China Life Insurance: US$2bn+ Cash & Scrip Deal to Reach the Finish Line

Taiwan-based China Development Financial's US$2bn+ Deal to acquire the remaining 44% in consolidated subsidiary China Life Insurance is trading...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

PICC Group – Big Print

PICC GROUP: PICC reported QOQ 1Q21 net profit growth of 6.7x, attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s each...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Short Interest: Tencent, Xiaomi, GCL Poly, Mobile, BYD, Lasertec, Advantest, Celltrion, Largan

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Asian Insurers – Mea, Mea EIOPA

ASIA INSURERS: On April 3, 2020, EIOPA temporarily suspended capital management activities," but just reversed course. Many Asia-Pacific insurers...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – New Initiative Does Not Offset Risks

AIA GROUP: New Partnership With Zhong An Should Help New Customer Acquisition Regionally, But Risks Remain High In Hong Kong, Mainland China, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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