Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week I wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-s-partial-offer-for-marketing-consultant-intage-4326" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112399" rel="noopener">NTT's Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) -</a> (with a spurious hyphen at the end). </li>
<li>In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. </li>
<li>So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.</li>
</ul>


Last week I wrote about NTT's Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) - (with a spurious hyphen at the end). 
In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. 
So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.


NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

Sanei Architecture Planning / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>[cue Tom Hardy gif saying "That's Bait"]. But yes, this story has a backstory to the Japanese underworld, and while the original sin may have been minor, it's everything.</li>
<li>The firm was raided, the CEO resigned, a govt authority "recommended" Sanei get rid of Mr Koike's influence, banks got antsy, employee morale dropped. Sanei needed a saviour.</li>
<li>Koike-San asked <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/open-house-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19550:1" rel="noopener">Open House (3288 JP)</a> to buy his shares. They agreed to take over the company. It's basically a done deal with a possible twist.</li>
</ul>


[cue Tom Hardy gif saying "That's Bait"]. But yes, this story has a backstory to the Japanese underworld, and while the original sin may have been minor, it's everything.
The firm was raided, the CEO resigned, a govt authority "recommended" Sanei get rid of Mr Koike's influence, banks got antsy, employee morale dropped. Sanei needed a saviour.
Koike-San asked Open House (3288 JP) to buy his shares. They agreed to take over the company. It's basically a done deal with a possible twist.


Sanei Architecture Planning (3228) Finds Saviour from Mafia-Linked Former Boss and Majority Owner

<ul>
<li>In March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> agreed to be bought out by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infroneer-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35785:1" rel="noopener">INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)</a> for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they'd pay ¥1,000.</li>
<li>The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office's protestations of love, no deal as of November.</li>
<li>Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶.  NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.</li>
</ul>


In March, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be bought out by INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they'd pay ¥1,000.
The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office's protestations of love, no deal as of November.
Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶.  NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.


Toyo (1890) Says "We Reject". YFO Says "But We Didn't Talk". Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>This insight is a follow-up to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-who-is-ready-aug-2022" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:74615" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022)</a> </li>
<li>At present, there are 53 names that satisfy all of these conditions and there are more names that are close to being in that group.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
This insight is a follow-up to TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022) 
At present, there are 53 names that satisfy all of these conditions and there are more names that are close to being in that group.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2022)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The only way that noisy shareholders in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> can be eliminated, allowing management and employees to focus on "making Toshiba stronger" is to arrange a privatisation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected. There are hints now that A$30 may be the price.   </li>
<li>After 23 months of negotiations with various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> is now without an Offer.</li>
</ul>


The only way that noisy shareholders in Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) can be eliminated, allowing management and employees to focus on "making Toshiba stronger" is to arrange a privatisation. 

BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) approached OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected. There are hints now that A$30 may be the price.   
After 23 months of negotiations with various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) is now without an Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

Japan

Raysum Co., Ltd. provides building management, real estate investment, and advisory services as well as securitized real estate properties. The Company also investigates, purchases, and collects non-performing loans as a servicing agent.

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Raysum Co Ltd (8890 JP)

NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

When I wrote this, 9 out of 11 cases presented, including my base case, had NAVF-held shares being tendered (whether they sell, or they tender)....

Travis Lundy

Sanei Architecture Planning (3228) Finds Saviour from Mafia-Linked Former Boss and Majority Owner

Sanei Architecture Planning (3228) got in a spot of bother with a yakuza-linked payment. That is forcing the change in control, and a tender offer...

Travis Lundy

Toyo (1890) Says "We Reject". YFO Says "But We Didn't Talk". Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

YFO release another Press Release on Toyo, who apparently told them "No Go". That makes Toyo look bad. YFO went directly to directors. We now have...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2022)

Appier Group, ArtSpark Holdings, and Chubu Steel Plate are interesting TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names that are worth tracking over the next few...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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