Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics</li>
<li>We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.</li>
<li>SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.</li>
</ul>


We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.


Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unibail-rodamco-westfield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27181:1" rel="noopener">Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW AU)</a>, Europe's largest listed commercial property company, recently reported solid 3Q23 financials (through to September 2023). </li>
<li>Covid played havoc on shopping mall players/developers - URW is still down 62% from its Covid cliff versus an average of 24% for a basket of peers.</li>
<li>Investor concerns over URW's strategy and leverage have been a drag on the stock; however its long-term plan is finding the right path. </li>
</ul>



Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW AU), Europe's largest listed commercial property company, recently reported solid 3Q23 financials (through to September 2023). 
Covid played havoc on shopping mall players/developers - URW is still down 62% from its Covid cliff versus an average of 24% for a basket of peers.
Investor concerns over URW's strategy and leverage have been a drag on the stock; however its long-term plan is finding the right path. 


Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: The Retail Community

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we analyze the drivers of a new relationship between SHEIN and Forever 21</li>
<li>We think SHEIN agreed to the deal in part to become more "mainstream" in the US</li>
<li>We also believe SHEIN takes seriously the legal and political risks it faces ahead of US IPO</li>
</ul>


In this insight we analyze the drivers of a new relationship between SHEIN and Forever 21
We think SHEIN agreed to the deal in part to become more "mainstream" in the US
We also believe SHEIN takes seriously the legal and political risks it faces ahead of US IPO


Why Is SHEIN Getting Into Bed with Forever 21? | Plus, More Legal and Political Challenges in US

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Magic Fairy Dust: Square (SQ.US) has agreed to purchase Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay) for USD 29 bn in an all-stock transaction – implying Afterpay’s shares to be worth AUD 126.21. This is not a bad outcome for Afterpay, which only posts consistent losses. Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] stands to gain 462% on its initial stake for a gain of over USD 800 mn – not bad for a passive deal 15 months ago;  and
Risks Remain: In addition to Tencent is suspending new user registrations for its WeChat services, as it is undergoing a “security technical upgrade” in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, there are multiple other challenges. We have no doubt that Tencent will also follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in their formation of a financial holding company. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. An FHC represents significant downside risks. Earnings will compress, as capital requirements increase.

*Magic Fairy Dust: Square (SQ.US) has agreed to purchase Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay) for USD 29 bn in an all-stock transaction – implying Afterpay’s shares to be worth AUD 126.21. This is not a bad outcome for Afterpay, which only posts consistent losses. Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] stands to gain 462% on its initial stake for a gain of over USD 800 mn – not bad for a passive deal 15 months ago;  and
Risks Remain: In addition to Tencent is suspending new user registrations for its WeChat services, as it is undergoing a “security technical upgrade” in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, there are multiple other challenges. We have no doubt that Tencent will also follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in their formation of a financial holding company. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. An FHC represents significant downside risks. Earnings will compress, as capital requirements increase.

Tencent Holdings – Clairvoyance Pays Off

United States

Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed, real estate investment trust. The Company owns, develops, and manages retail real estate properties including regional malls, outlet centers, community/lifestyle centers, and international properties.

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Simon Property Group (SPG US)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: The Retail Community

Concerns over URW's strategy and leverage have been a drag on the stock; however its long-term plan is finding the right path. Not a hard catalyst...

David Blennerhassett

Why Is SHEIN Getting Into Bed with Forever 21? | Plus, More Legal and Political Challenges in US

In this insight we evaluate the new relationship between SHEIN and US brand Forever 21. Our main conclusion is that SHEIN is acting in response to...

Tracking Traffic

Tencent Holdings – Clairvoyance Pays Off

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Square has agreed to purchase Afterpay for USD 29 bn, and Tencent stands to gain 462% or over USD 800 mn. While positive,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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