Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2025 YTD, HK/China RE companies rebounded from recent lows (10% - 30%), and we think this will continue and turn into a sector re-rating</li>
<li>A combination of reduced global geopolitical tensions, expected monetary easing from US, China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, HK’s robust capital inflow and lower interbank rate will support re-rating</li>
<li>Despite recent rebound, valuation remains attractive.  We recommend LONG COLI 688 HK and SHKP 16 HK.  For higher risk tolerance and higher beta, we recommend NWD 17 HK</li>
</ul>


2025 YTD, HK/China RE companies rebounded from recent lows (10% - 30%), and we think this will continue and turn into a sector re-rating
A combination of reduced global geopolitical tensions, expected monetary easing from US, China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, HK’s robust capital inflow and lower interbank rate will support re-rating
Despite recent rebound, valuation remains attractive.  We recommend LONG COLI 688 HK and SHKP 16 HK.  For higher risk tolerance and higher beta, we recommend NWD 17 HK


HK/China Real Estate Bottoming Out, Upcoming Re-Rating with Multiple Catalysts

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China</li>
<li>We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening</li>
<li>Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks</li>
</ul>


New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China
We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening
Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks


Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

<ul>
<li>The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once</li>
<li>Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital</li>
<li>We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China</li>
</ul>


The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China


Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. </li>
<li>Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> are the two potential best bets.</li>
</ul>


With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.

Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.


HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

<ul>
<li>Next week is going to be huge due to US election taking place on November 5 and China’s NPC standing committee meeting from Nov 4- Nov 8</li>
<li>This will have huge implications on the global financial markets access all asset classes</li>
<li>We think Hong Kong and China property will benefit from these events and the risk reward profile is attractive</li>
</ul>


Next week is going to be huge due to US election taking place on November 5 and China’s NPC standing committee meeting from Nov 4- Nov 8
This will have huge implications on the global financial markets access all asset classes
We think Hong Kong and China property will benefit from these events and the risk reward profile is attractive


Short Note: Position for Trump Trade and China Stimulus – Buckle up for Next Week

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

HK/China Real Estate Bottoming Out, Upcoming Re-Rating with Multiple Catalysts

2025 YTD, HK and China developers have rebounded 10-30%. We think the re-rating will continue, driven by 1) reduced global tensions 2) US rate...

Jacob Cheng

Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

This is relevant to new insight on HK banks with worsening HFD for LDR and real estate lending growth now at most negative rates in the HKMA...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore's banks are all giving back lots of capital to shareholders. This may appear to be good for yield, but it suggests to us that lending...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

With the Fed hinting at a slower rate cut path, the beneficiaries mentioned in this Insight will turn to suffer more. The names with the highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Short Note: Position for Trump Trade and China Stimulus – Buckle up for Next Week

Next week is going to be huge with US Presidential election and China's NPC standing committee meeting taking place, both of which will have...

Jacob Cheng

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