Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At ¥17,340/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a>'s words: "Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise."</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy's words: "Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise."
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Don't Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) - Buy More

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Since April 28th we traced a path for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s stock price, first <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-tactical-outlook-following-toyota-industries-6201-jp-privatization-rumors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (forecast: going down) and then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-post-earnings-outlook-amid-180b-estimated-u-s-tariff-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).</li>
<li>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
</li>
<li>
Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.
</li>
</ul>


Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.


Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

StubWorld: Don't Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) - Buy More

At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries is cheap. Corporate governance is shocking. Stay long. Buy more. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even...

David Blennerhassett