Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

INFRONEER Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infroneer-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35785:1" rel="noopener">INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)</a>  aims to raise around US$800m to fund the acquisition of Swing Corporation.</li>
<li>The acquisition was announced earlier this year, with the company revising its earnings guidance a few months ago. The stock has corrected significantly since the deal was announced.</li>
<li>We had a look at the deal background in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates and past large deals performance.</li>
</ul>



INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)  aims to raise around US$800m to fund the acquisition of Swing Corporation.
The acquisition was announced earlier this year, with the company revising its earnings guidance a few months ago. The stock has corrected significantly since the deal was announced.
We had a look at the deal background in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates and past large deals performance.


Aequitas:Infroneer Holding Placement Updates- Correction Done, past Large Primary Deals Have Done Ok

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is selling down its Archion holdings in a joint secondary offering valued up to ¥300 billion, injecting significant immediate liquidity directly into Toyota's balance sheet.</li>
<li>Fully shifting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hino-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2144:1" rel="noopener">Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP)</a> into Archion isolates Toyota from the operational and reputational fallout of Hino's emissions fraud, fundamentally reassuring institutional investors.</li>
<li>Splitting long-term commercial vehicle development expenses 50/50 with Daimler Truck protects Toyota's primary passenger margins while accelerating hydrogen fuel-cell market scaling.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is selling down its Archion holdings in a joint secondary offering valued up to ¥300 billion, injecting significant immediate liquidity directly into Toyota's balance sheet.
Fully shifting Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) into Archion isolates Toyota from the operational and reputational fallout of Hino's emissions fraud, fundamentally reassuring institutional investors.
Splitting long-term commercial vehicle development expenses 50/50 with Daimler Truck protects Toyota's primary passenger margins while accelerating hydrogen fuel-cell market scaling.


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After Archion Secondary Offering

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>uSmart starts coverage of Azeus Systems with a 'hold' rating, target $9.45.</li><li>Jefferies starts coverage on Singapore banks, targets DBS at $91.</li><li>KGI keeps Q&amp;M Dental at 'outperform' due to disciplined growth.</li></ul>

uSmart starts coverage of Azeus Systems with a 'hold' rating, target $9.45.Jefferies starts coverage on Singapore banks, targets DBS at $91.KGI keeps Q&amp;M Dental at 'outperform' due to disciplined growth.

Singapore Market Roundup (22-Sep-2026): uSmart initiates Azeus Systems with 'hold', target $9.45.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> sold off after printing new all time highs at 4000 in early February. A drop in operating and net income came 2 months later, early May.</li>
<li>Management guidance for FY2027 is the market's primary unresolved risk. <strong>Although the stock was very oversold, our model signals the rally that started this week may be short-lived. </strong>
</li>
<li>The most likely scenario is a brief continuation of the rally into next week, and then a new dip towards lower lows.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) sold off after printing new all time highs at 4000 in early February. A drop in operating and net income came 2 months later, early May.
Management guidance for FY2027 is the market's primary unresolved risk. Although the stock was very oversold, our model signals the rally that started this week may be short-lived. 

The most likely scenario is a brief continuation of the rally into next week, and then a new dip towards lower lows.


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Amid Profit Collapse: Current Rebound Has No Legs

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Aequitas:Infroneer Holding Placement Updates- Correction Done, past Large Primary Deals Have Done Ok

INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) aims to raise around US$800m to fund the acquisition of Swing Corporation. In this note, we look at the deal updates.

Sumeet Singh