Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY2026 earnings missed expectations as tariffs, rising costs, and weak North America profitability offset solid vehicle demand and hybrid sales growth.</li>
<li>Management’s FY2027 guidance implies a third straight year of profit decline, signalling Toyota is entering a costly but necessary phase of structural transformation.</li>
<li>Toyota's challenges are huge, and many are beyond its measure of control. Risk/reward is unattractive. Our FV is ¥2,400 (+1F PE of 13x, +1SD mean). AVOID. </li>
</ul>


FY2026 earnings missed expectations as tariffs, rising costs, and weak North America profitability offset solid vehicle demand and hybrid sales growth.
Management’s FY2027 guidance implies a third straight year of profit decline, signalling Toyota is entering a costly but necessary phase of structural transformation.
Toyota's challenges are huge, and many are beyond its measure of control. Risk/reward is unattractive. Our FV is ¥2,400 (+1F PE of 13x, +1SD mean). AVOID. 


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) FY2026 Results: Below as US Tariff Bites, Iranian War & Chinese Auto Woes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As promised, as part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> takeover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> was going to launch a Tender Offer Buyback for TICO's stake. Today, it was announced. </li>
<li>This buyback in the form of a tender offer at ¥3,067/share is for a maximum of 1,192,331,020 shares, for ¥3.657trln. That's US$22.8bn. It's a big buyback. A lot of accretion. </li>
<li>Everyone can participate, though tendered shares are subject to a Deemed Dividend Withholding Tax. Some investors have found a way to deal with that. It's worth figuring it out.</li>
</ul>


As promised, as part of the Toyota Industries (6201 JP) takeover, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) was going to launch a Tender Offer Buyback for TICO's stake. Today, it was announced. 
This buyback in the form of a tender offer at ¥3,067/share is for a maximum of 1,192,331,020 shares, for ¥3.657trln. That's US$22.8bn. It's a big buyback. A lot of accretion. 
Everyone can participate, though tendered shares are subject to a Deemed Dividend Withholding Tax. Some investors have found a way to deal with that. It's worth figuring it out.


[Japan Partial Tender] Toyota's US$23bn Tender Buyback from TICO Is Potentially a Big Put Option

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and its partner TAPCO now control 88.26% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> after a successful tender offer.</li>
<li>Toyota Industries' remaining small shareholders will be forced to sell their shares so the company can be taken private and removed from the stock exchanges.</li>
<li>The deal boosts Toyota Motor’s share price, removing uncertainty and downward pressure; this alone should be a BUY signal, plus <strong>the stock is OVERSOLD according to our model.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


As reported by Brian Freitas , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its partner TAPCO now control 88.26% of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) after a successful tender offer.
Toyota Industries' remaining small shareholders will be forced to sell their shares so the company can be taken private and removed from the stock exchanges.
The deal boosts Toyota Motor’s share price, removing uncertainty and downward pressure; this alone should be a BUY signal, plus the stock is OVERSOLD according to our model.



Toyota Motor (7203 JP): Tactical Outlook Amid Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Structural Delisting Flows

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This report analyses 17 of the world’s largest automakers and identifies a systemic “Carbon Gap” between reported Scope 3 Category 11 emissions and estimated real-world lifecycle emissions.</li>
<li>Across the sector, Carbon Tracker estimates a median reporting gap of 33%, driven by differences between corporate reporting assumptions and real-world vehicle emissions.</li>
<li>Adjusted emissions estimates suggest several automakers are as carbon intensive as traditional oil and gas companies.</li>
</ul>


This report analyses 17 of the world’s largest automakers and identifies a systemic “Carbon Gap” between reported Scope 3 Category 11 emissions and estimated real-world lifecycle emissions.
Across the sector, Carbon Tracker estimates a median reporting gap of 33%, driven by differences between corporate reporting assumptions and real-world vehicle emissions.
Adjusted emissions estimates suggest several automakers are as carbon intensive as traditional oil and gas companies.


Energy Transition: Oil Companies in Disguise

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, a number of deals were launched at the end of the week.</li>
<li>On the placement front, there was a flurry of deals across the region, along with news of a possible large cross-shareholding unwind in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP).</a>
</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a number of deals were launched at the end of the week.
On the placement front, there was a flurry of deals across the region, along with news of a possible large cross-shareholding unwind in Toyota Motor (7203 JP).



Aequitas ECM Weekly (2 March 2026)- Toyota Motors, Nintendo, IBIDEN, Estun, PayPay, CleanMax

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)