Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International - FX and China weakness key drivers.</li>
<li>Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.</li>
<li>FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International - FX and China weakness key drivers.
Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.
FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.


Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact - Execution Solid, China Still Weak

<ul>
<li>Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.</li>
<li>Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.</li>
<li>Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.</li>
</ul>


Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.
Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.
Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.


FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = "Hold".</li>
<li>The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.</li>
<li>This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = "Hold".
The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.
This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup:  Buy-This-Dip

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises <em>and</em> outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

<ul>
<li>Domestic Uniqlo SSS (including e-commerce) were +14.9% in June. Positive</li>
<li>Impressive +8.1% increase in customer traffic and +6.3% gain in per-customer spend</li>
<li>I have a bearish view on Fast Retailing due to rich valuations (25x EV/EBIT). However, the share price may perform well in the run up to the Q3 report.</li>
</ul>


Domestic Uniqlo SSS (including e-commerce) were +14.9% in June. Positive
Impressive +8.1% increase in customer traffic and +6.3% gain in per-customer spend
I have a bearish view on Fast Retailing due to rich valuations (25x EV/EBIT). However, the share price may perform well in the run up to the Q3 report.


Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact - Execution Solid, China Still Weak

Uniqlo International weakness drives Q3 revenue miss, Japan and Western markets outperform while U.S. and Europe rival China in size. Tariffs and...

Mark Chadwick