Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the chip market's 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.</li>
<li>Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry's historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.</li>
<li>The US' trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.</li>
</ul>


Despite the chip market's 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.
Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry's historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.
The US' trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.


What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Consumption / In Depth: Holiday spending gives Chinese consumption a needed boost </li><li>E-commerce /In Depth: Trump ends an era for Shein and Temu</li><li>Alibaba /: Alibaba’s $53 billion bet on an AI and cloud expansion windfall</li></ul>

Consumption / In Depth: Holiday spending gives Chinese consumption a needed boost E-commerce /In Depth: Trump ends an era for Shein and TemuAlibaba /: Alibaba’s $53 billion bet on an AI and cloud expansion windfall

CX Daily: Holiday Spending Gives Chinese Consumption a Needed Boost 

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market</li>
<li>Expectations are so low that there is  a high probability of upside surprises</li>
<li>An unloved sector that will rerate on any positive catalyst</li>
</ul>


Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
Expectations are so low that there is  a high probability of upside surprises
An unloved sector that will rerate on any positive catalyst


Consumer Stocks - Waiting to Catch a Fire

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a>'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. </li>
<li>Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.</li>
<li>Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.</li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK)'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. 
Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.
Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Our most prominent theme over the last year has been to BUY HK/China markets. We are still very bullish on these SECULAR BULL markets.</li>
<li>We have been Bullish on gold and discussed the asymmetry of its price movements given the global tightening starting in 2021/22. Gold will continues to benefit from negative real rates.</li>
<li>We have been Bearish on Japan since publishing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/technically-speaking-japan-meets-resistance-and-hong-kong-finally-breaks-downtrend" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:135575" rel="noopener">Technically Speaking: Japan Meets Resistance and Hong Kong Finally Breaks Downtrend</a> on April 2, 2024. We also remain bearish on India.</li>
</ul>


Our most prominent theme over the last year has been to BUY HK/China markets. We are still very bullish on these SECULAR BULL markets.
We have been Bullish on gold and discussed the asymmetry of its price movements given the global tightening starting in 2021/22. Gold will continues to benefit from negative real rates.
We have been Bearish on Japan since publishing Technically Speaking: Japan Meets Resistance and Hong Kong Finally Breaks Downtrend on April 2, 2024. We also remain bearish on India.


Over the Horizon: A Review of Thematic Trends

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Alibaba (BABA US)

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

Jim Handy

CX Daily: Holiday Spending Gives Chinese Consumption a Needed Boost

TOP STORIES Consumption / In Depth: Holiday spending gives Chinese consumption a needed boost The biggest highlight of the recent Lunar New Year...

Caixin Global

Consumer Stocks - Waiting to Catch a Fire

Budweiser Asia Pacific (1876.HK) is up 12% today as earnings are slightly less worse than expected and the dividend is increased. This confirms our...

Rikki Malik

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Over the Horizon: A Review of Thematic Trends

Our thematic trends in Asia are going strong, namely: BUY HK/China markets, BUY Gold, Sell/Short Japan (Autos, Semis, Trading Co.s, and Steel),...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

​The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

Jim Handy

CX Daily: Holiday Spending Gives Chinese Consumption a Needed Boost

TOP STORIES Consumption / In Depth: Holiday spending gives Chinese consumption a needed boost The biggest highlight of the recent Lunar New Year...

Caixin Global

Consumer Stocks - Waiting to Catch a Fire

Budweiser Asia Pacific (1876.HK) is up 12% today as earnings are slightly less worse than expected and the dividend is increased. This confirms our...

Rikki Malik

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

​CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Over the Horizon: A Review of Thematic Trends

Our thematic trends in Asia are going strong, namely: BUY HK/China markets, BUY Gold, Sell/Short Japan (Autos, Semis, Trading Co.s, and Steel),...

David Mudd

The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...