IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weride-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39905:1" rel="noopener">WeRide (WRD US)</a>, a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise up to US$119 million through a Nasdaq IPO and US$321 million through a concurrent private placement.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weride-wrd-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:154629" rel="noopener">WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to profitability, elongated cash collection cycles and cash burn.</li>
</ul>



WeRide (WRD US), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise up to US$119 million through a Nasdaq IPO and US$321 million through a concurrent private placement.
In WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to profitability, elongated cash collection cycles and cash burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weride-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39905:1" rel="noopener">WeRide (WRD US)</a>, a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise between US$200 to US$300 million through a Nasdaq IPO.    </li>
<li>WeRide is the most commercially successful L4 autonomous driving company globally, measured by commercialization revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a large TAM, strong product capabilities, near-term mass commercialization, articulation of a path to profitability, improving earnings quality and presence of blue-chip investors. </li>
</ul>



WeRide (WRD US), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise between US$200 to US$300 million through a Nasdaq IPO.    
WeRide is the most commercially successful L4 autonomous driving company globally, measured by commercialization revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
The bull case rests on a large TAM, strong product capabilities, near-term mass commercialization, articulation of a path to profitability, improving earnings quality and presence of blue-chip investors. 


Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail - 80% of the book - is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. </li>
<li>The Offering has follow-on "non-discretionary" demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.</li>
<li>The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda's relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.</li>
</ul>


The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail - 80% of the book - is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. 
The Offering has follow-on "non-discretionary" demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda's relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.


Big Honda (7267) Offering - Flow Timing Matters

<ul>
<li>At the beginning of this month, we got a scoop from Reuters about a US$3bn selldown of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> by P&amp;C insurers and others. </li>
<li>We knew this was coming at some point. The FSA had pushed the insurers to unwind cross-holdings, and it is otherwise of the zeitgeist. </li>
<li>It came out as heavily retail-oriented, and the supply/demand details are otherwise interesting. To boot, there is an EPS boost to come.</li>
</ul>


At the beginning of this month, we got a scoop from Reuters about a US$3bn selldown of Honda Motor (7267 JP) by P&amp;C insurers and others. 
We knew this was coming at some point. The FSA had pushed the insurers to unwind cross-holdings, and it is otherwise of the zeitgeist. 
It came out as heavily retail-oriented, and the supply/demand details are otherwise interesting. To boot, there is an EPS boost to come.


The Honda (7267) Offering - Much Easier Than It Looks

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to...

Arun George

WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a large TAM, strong capabilities, near-term mass commercialization, articulation of a path to profitability, improving...

Arun George

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

We expect the official index changes for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index to be announced after market close on 7th August 2024. It is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Big Honda (7267) Offering - Flow Timing Matters

The Honda Offering is BIG at ¥500bn but over time, the net overhang is substantially reduced by behavioural expectations, passive buying, a...

Travis Lundy

The Honda (7267) Offering - Much Easier Than It Looks

Honda's mega-offering is not mega. It is two-thirds covered by non-active investor demand over the next two months. 80+% if the stock falls post...

Travis Lundy

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