Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral</li>
<li>NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan - still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market 
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral
NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan - still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.


Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 32 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week; however terms were firmed for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media (OML AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golfzon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16376:1" rel="noopener">Golfzon (121440 KS)</a>'s MBO was reloaded.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cygnus-metals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30504:1" rel="noopener">Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/accent-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14283:1" rel="noopener">Accent Group (AX1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-fin-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9999:1" rel="noopener">Z Fin (1168 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 32 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week; however terms were firmed for oOh!Media (OML AU) and ReNew Energy Global (RNW US); and Golfzon (121440 KS)'s MBO was reloaded.
Key updates/news also took place on: FleetPartners Group (FPR AU), Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU), Accent Group (AX1 AU), Z Fin (1168 HK), and Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: FleetPartners, OOh!Media; GOLFZON, Cygnus Metals, Accent Grp, ReNew Energy

<ul>
<li>EQT would probably jump higher and Bain would come out above that. Both would aim high to get it done and not lose the asset. Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> books losses in response to contractual relief delays (or cancellation altogether[?]), Hanwha steps in with a fair offer for Austal's US unit.</li>
<li>The NAV discount has narrowed, and the implied stub is elevated, but at 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-limited-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is still a buy.</li>
</ul>


EQT would probably jump higher and Bain would come out above that. Both would aim high to get it done and not lose the asset. Stay long Kakaku.com (2371 JP).
As Austal Ltd (ASB AU) books losses in response to contractual relief delays (or cancellation altogether[?]), Hanwha steps in with a fair offer for Austal's US unit.
The NAV discount has narrowed, and the implied stub is elevated, but at 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is still a buy.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

SPX gains as end of Fed hike cycle in sight; NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand; JP investors buy record...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: FleetPartners, OOh!Media; GOLFZON, Cygnus Metals, Accent Grp, ReNew Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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