Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program</li>
<li>"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125</li>
<li>Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24</li>
</ul>


"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program
"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125
Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24


Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December</li>
<li>But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling</li>
<li>We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT</li>
</ul>


After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December
But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling
We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.</li>
<li>They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.</li>
<li>The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. </li>
</ul>


On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.
They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.
The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. 


HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>'s positive profit alert beat the FY24 forecast by 12%. It also suggests an acceleration in growth to 1.9-2.1x in 2H24, from +13% in 1H24. </li>
<li>The muted share price performance reflects concerns about an influx of capacity, intra-Asia demand outlook, and freight rate prospects. We refute such worries.</li>
<li>It stands on an attractive dividend yield of 11.1% for FY24. Even under conservative earnings forecasts, its 8.1% and 6.6% yields for FY25 and FY26 are appealing.</li>
</ul>



SITC International (1308 HK)'s positive profit alert beat the FY24 forecast by 12%. It also suggests an acceleration in growth to 1.9-2.1x in 2H24, from +13% in 1H24. 
The muted share price performance reflects concerns about an influx of capacity, intra-Asia demand outlook, and freight rate prospects. We refute such worries.
It stands on an attractive dividend yield of 11.1% for FY24. Even under conservative earnings forecasts, its 8.1% and 6.6% yields for FY25 and FY26 are appealing.


SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

Hong Kong

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

On February 6 Maersk reported Q424 results that beat expectations. More interesting to us was management's thoroughly downbeat FY25 guidance, where...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

A ceasefire, if successful, will lead to lower rates in the Asia-Europe & Transpacific trades. We remain -ive on container shipping in 2025 despite...

Tracking Traffic

HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

HMM plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap.

Douglas Kim

SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

SITC beats the consensus FY24 profit forecast by 12%, implying growth acceleration in 2H24. We do not agree with concerns on capacity, demand, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

On February 6 Maersk reported Q424 results that beat expectations. More interesting to us was management's thoroughly downbeat FY25 guidance, where...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

A ceasefire, if successful, will lead to lower rates in the Asia-Europe & Transpacific trades. We remain -ive on container shipping in 2025 despite...

Tracking Traffic

HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

HMM plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap.

Douglas Kim

SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

​SITC beats the consensus FY24 profit forecast by 12%, implying growth acceleration in 2H24. We do not agree with concerns on capacity, demand, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

SITC beats the consensus FY24 profit forecast by 12%, implying growth acceleration in 2H24. We do not agree with concerns on capacity, demand, and...