Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling</li>
<li>Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak</li>
<li>We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short</li>
</ul>


Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling
Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak
We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 September, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced the results of the tender offer.</li>
<li>Its two largest shareholders (Korea Development Bank - KDB and Korea Ocean Business Corp - KOBC) both participated in the tender offer.</li>
<li>With end of the tender offer, we believe there could be a renewed focus on the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on HMM. </li>
</ul>


On 17 September, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced the results of the tender offer.
Its two largest shareholders (Korea Development Bank - KDB and Korea Ocean Business Corp - KOBC) both participated in the tender offer.
With end of the tender offer, we believe there could be a renewed focus on the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on HMM. 


<ul>
<li>In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit</li>
<li>That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse</li>
<li>Y/Y, shares still <em>up</em> slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers</li>
</ul>


In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit
That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse
Y/Y, shares still up slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers


Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. </li>
<li>The Chinese airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. </li>
<li>Container shipping and trade-related companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. 
The Chinese airlines, Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and China Travel International Investment (308 HK) exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. 
Container shipping and trade-related companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.


China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).</li>
<li>An even bigger factor on HMM's share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. </li>
<li>Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
An even bigger factor on HMM's share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. 
Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.


HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

Hong Kong

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

Price Gauge
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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

August and September data show clearly that deep-sea ocean freight rates remain under downward pressure. We believe Q325 carrier earnings may...

Tracking Traffic

HMM: Results of the Tender Offer

HMM announced the results of the tender offer. The combined stakes of KDB and KOBC declined from 71.7% prior to tender offer to 64.9% post this event.

Douglas Kim

Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

Taiwan's Evergreen Marine reported a steep -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit in Q225, but based on their monthly revenues in July-August, we...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

HMM's ranking among the top ranks of short selling volume is Negative. HMM ranked third among listed stocks in terms of short selling volume from...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

August and September data show clearly that deep-sea ocean freight rates remain under downward pressure. We believe Q325 carrier earnings may...

Tracking Traffic

HMM: Results of the Tender Offer

HMM announced the results of the tender offer. The combined stakes of KDB and KOBC declined from 71.7% prior to tender offer to 64.9% post this event.

Douglas Kim

Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

Taiwan's Evergreen Marine reported a steep -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit in Q225, but based on their monthly revenues in July-August, we...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

​1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

HMM's ranking among the top ranks of short selling volume is Negative. HMM ranked third among listed stocks in terms of short selling volume from...

Douglas Kim

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...