External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We reiterate our view of overweighting high quality names among Property &amp; PM sector given that 1) Shenzhen/Suzhou further relaxed home purchase policies which further proved regulators’ determination in upholding the market confidence in our view</li><li>2) we think there is ample room for fine-tuning in tier-1 cities (Figure 1)</li><li>3) property transaction data are robust </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We reiterate our view of overweighting high quality names among Property &amp; PM sector given that 1) Shenzhen/Suzhou further relaxed home purchase policies which further proved regulators’ determination in upholding the market confidence in our view2) we think there is ample room for fine-tuning in tier-1 cities (Figure 1)3) property transaction data are robust Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; </li>
<li>Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? </li>
<li>We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.</li>
</ul>


As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.


Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We've been tracking the data on approved financing for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-the-red-hot-whitelists" target="_blank" rel="noopener">projects on the 'whitelist'</a> for over a year now, considering it a major factor in addressing the 'sold-not-completed' problem</li>
<li>New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024</li>
<li>There was a big acceleration in approvals in Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


We've been tracking the data on approved financing for the projects on the 'whitelist' for over a year now, considering it a major factor in addressing the 'sold-not-completed' problem
New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024
There was a big acceleration in approvals in Q4 2024


China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

<ul>
<li>Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role</li>
<li>But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary</li>
<li>Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications</li>
</ul>


Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications


China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

<ul>
<li>The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend</li>
<li>What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices</li>
<li>In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday</li>
</ul>


The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday


China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

Shenzhen made another move on policy relaxation including 1) lowering CPF down payment ratio from 30% to 20% for 2nd home buyers

CMB International

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

China Housing: New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

In this note, we present the Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

Shenzhen made another move on policy relaxation including 1) lowering CPF down payment ratio from 30% to 20% for 2nd home buyers

CMB International

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

​Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

China Housing: New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

In this note, we present the Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday.

Robert Ciemniak

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...