Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Politburo meeting re-emphasized the need for inventory reduction and ensuring project completions.</li><li>The latter saw breakthroughs with a stalled residential project in Nanjing returning down payments to homebuyers.</li><li>This success was enabled by stringent oversight of presale regulatory funds and enhanced legal protection for homebuyers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Politburo meeting re-emphasized the need for inventory reduction and ensuring project completions.The latter saw breakthroughs with a stalled residential project in Nanjing returning down payments to homebuyers.This success was enabled by stringent oversight of presale regulatory funds and enhanced legal protection for homebuyers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Narrow in Aug

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on KINGBOARD HLDG, LI AUTO, XIAOMI, TRINA SOLAR, TENCENT, CHINA LIFE, GCL TECHNOLOGY, PDD.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on KINGBOARD HLDG, LI AUTO, XIAOMI, TRINA SOLAR, TENCENT, CHINA LIFE, GCL TECHNOLOGY, PDD.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Aug): KINGBOARD HLDG, LI AUTO, XIAOMI, TRINA SOLAR, TENCENT, PDD

<ul><li>The demand-side policy easing continued in multiple cities regarding CPF (central provident fund) housing loans and purchase limits.</li><li>One more city – Hebei’s Cangzhou announced plans to acquire unsold housing inventory.</li><li>The land market showed signs of confidence restoring in a few cities and we suggest watching the good number of land auctions in July. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The demand-side policy easing continued in multiple cities regarding CPF (central provident fund) housing loans and purchase limits.One more city – Hebei’s Cangzhou announced plans to acquire unsold housing inventory.The land market showed signs of confidence restoring in a few cities and we suggest watching the good number of land auctions in July. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly highlight: expect strong sales momentum to last longer

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Record Low Allocations: Real Estate holdings in active China equity funds have plummeted to a new low of 2.51%, with only 76.4% of funds maintaining any position.</li>
<li>Recent Fund Rotation: Closures by key investors and a downturn in ownership metrics since October last year highlight the sector’s declining appeal.</li>
<li>KE Holdings Exception: Amidst the decline, KE Holdings (2423 HK) stands out, achieving an all-time high in fund ownership.</li>
</ul>


Record Low Allocations: Real Estate holdings in active China equity funds have plummeted to a new low of 2.51%, with only 76.4% of funds maintaining any position.
Recent Fund Rotation: Closures by key investors and a downturn in ownership metrics since October last year highlight the sector’s declining appeal.
KE Holdings Exception: Amidst the decline, KE Holdings (2423 HK) stands out, achieving an all-time high in fund ownership.


China Real Estate: Continued Fund Rotation Drives New Lows

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Longfor (960 HK)

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) shared their estimate of the scale of the issue with the 'sold-not...

Robert Ciemniak

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Narrow in Aug

The Politburo meeting re-emphasized the need for inventory reduction and ensuring project completions. The latter saw breakthroughs with a stalled...

CMB International

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Aug): KINGBOARD HLDG, LI AUTO, XIAOMI, TRINA SOLAR, TENCENT, PDD

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in KINGBOARD HLDG, LI AUTO, XIAOMI, TRINA SOLAR, TENCENT, CHINA LIFE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Property - Weekly highlight: expect strong sales momentum to last longer

The demand-side policy easing continued in multiple cities regarding CPF (central provident fund) housing loans and purchase limits.

CMB International

China Real Estate: Continued Fund Rotation Drives New Lows

Closures by key investors and a downturn in ownership metrics since October last year highlight the Real Estate sector’s declining appeal.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)