HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. </li>
<li>Heavy-Weights like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.</li>
</ul>


Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. 
Heavy-Weights like Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and ENN Energy (2688 HK) are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.


HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with sound fundamentals experienced an uptick.</li><li>We interpret this as an indication that the market is gradually absorbing the information regarding the potential unforeseen impacts of the implementation of financing-side policies – the project whitelist.</li><li>We think the policy intention is to prevent adding new names to the defaulted list and avoid banks to withdraw project funding only based on risk at developers’ group level regardless of project quality, which caused more construction halting. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with sound fundamentals experienced an uptick.We interpret this as an indication that the market is gradually absorbing the information regarding the potential unforeseen impacts of the implementation of financing-side policies – the project whitelist.We think the policy intention is to prevent adding new names to the defaulted list and avoid banks to withdraw project funding only based on risk at developers’ group level regardless of project quality, which caused more construction halting. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property – Which Projects in Whitelist Are More Likely to Obtain Incremental Loans?

<ul>
<li>A series of policies on both the demand and financing side have been rolled out recently including purchase limit relaxation in Guangzhou, MOHURD’s financing coordination mechanism and PBOC/CBIRC’s loosening on operational property loans.</li>
<li>We believe the policy package should boost property sales after the CNY but only bring a ST positive effect on the sector’s stock performance given the core issues causing fundamental challenges remain unresolved: 1) residents’ purchasing power has not seen significant improvement, and 2) financial institutions’ unchanged risk assessment standards make it difficult for developers to obtain incremental financing.</li>
<li>Thus we think the key areas to watch are 1) macro economic recovery; and 2) whether regulators provide guidance on risk assessment standards for financial institutions or if there’s innovation in financing cooperation methods for developers. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


A series of policies on both the demand and financing side have been rolled out recently including purchase limit relaxation in Guangzhou, MOHURD’s financing coordination mechanism and PBOC/CBIRC’s loosening on operational property loans.
We believe the policy package should boost property sales after the CNY but only bring a ST positive effect on the sector’s stock performance given the core issues causing fundamental challenges remain unresolved: 1) residents’ purchasing power has not seen significant improvement, and 2) financial institutions’ unchanged risk assessment standards make it difficult for developers to obtain incremental financing.
Thus we think the key areas to watch are 1) macro economic recovery; and 2) whether regulators provide guidance on risk assessment standards for financial institutions or if there’s innovation in financing cooperation methods for developers. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes</li>
<li>The main 2024 scenarios: NBS national 'commercial residential' new home sales in GFA terms to decline by 3.5% (less negative vs -8.2% for 2023), new starts by 10%</li>
<li>The shift in demand from primary to secondary markets, the 'three major projects', greater divergence between cities, and support for developers, are our core themes for 2024</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes
The main 2024 scenarios: NBS national 'commercial residential' new home sales in GFA terms to decline by 3.5% (less negative vs -8.2% for 2023), new starts by 10%
The shift in demand from primary to secondary markets, the 'three major projects', greater divergence between cities, and support for developers, are our core themes for 2024


Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Property – Which Projects in Whitelist Are More Likely to Obtain Incremental Loans?

Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with...

CMB International

China Property Sector - 29 Jan 2024

The policy of operational property loans may favour developers with a higher proportion of investment properties like CR Land, Longfor, CMSK, and...

CMB International

Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

​HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Property – Which Projects in Whitelist Are More Likely to Obtain Incremental Loans?

Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with...

CMB International

China Property Sector - 29 Jan 2024

The policy of operational property loans may favour developers with a higher proportion of investment properties like CR Land, Longfor, CMSK, and...

CMB International

Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes.

Robert Ciemniak

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...