Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.</li>
<li>As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.
As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK).
The Liontown Resources (LTR AU) / Albemarle Corp (ALB US) transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celcomdigi-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:945:1" rel="noopener">CelcomDigi (CDB MK)</a> / Digi.com merger last November. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)'s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi.com merger last November. 
Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Established for more than 45 years, Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad is a financial group in Malaysia with extensive experience in equity broking, investment banking, treasury, Islamic banking, listed derivatives, investment management, wealth management, structured lending and trade financing. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CDB’s 1HFY23 results met our forecast but disappointed the market. 1HFY23 EBITDA grew 2% YoY underpinned by a 3% growth in subscribers base on stable ARPUs.</li><li>However, EBIT plunged by 30% due to accelerated depreciation which was a no-cash item.</li><li>We tweak our forecasts down slightly, as well as our TP to RM5.06 (from RM5.15) but maintain our OUTPERFORM call. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CDB’s 1HFY23 results met our forecast but disappointed the market. 1HFY23 EBITDA grew 2% YoY underpinned by a 3% growth in subscribers base on stable ARPUs.However, EBIT plunged by 30% due to accelerated depreciation which was a no-cash item.We tweak our forecasts down slightly, as well as our TP to RM5.06 (from RM5.15) but maintain our OUTPERFORM call. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CelcomDigi Bhd - Subscribers Still in Growth Trajectory

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a> recently completed the acquisition of a 66.03% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>.  </li>
<li>Axiata is now obligated to undertake a mandatory tender (MTO) offer to acquire the remaining 33.97% equity interest in Link Net. There are no conditions attached to the MTO.</li>
<li>The MTO is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2022. The spread has narrowed, yet there is still some left.</li>
</ul>



Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) recently completed the acquisition of a 66.03% stake in Link Net (LINK IJ).  
Axiata is now obligated to undertake a mandatory tender (MTO) offer to acquire the remaining 33.97% equity interest in Link Net. There are no conditions attached to the MTO.
The MTO is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2022. The spread has narrowed, yet there is still some left.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), TA Securities Holdings Berhad

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

Digi’s 9MFY21 core net profit of RM852mn (-3.0% YoY) came within ours and consensus estimates at 74.6% and 73.4%, respectively. Digi declared a 3rd interim dividend of 4.0sen (3QFY20: 4.1sen). [...] 3QFY21’s service revenue and EBITDA improved further for the 2nd consecutive quarter by 0.2% QoQ and 5.7% QoQ to RM1,343mn and RM786mn. [...] Alongside the gradual return of the operating and retail environment to normalcy, management’s latest guidance for FY21 is for service revenue to decline by low-single digit % (unchanged) and EBITDA to decline by a low-to-mid single digit (from mid-single digit). [...] Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Digi’s 9MFY21 core net profit of RM852mn (-3.0% YoY) came within ours and consensus estimates at 74.6% and 73.4%, respectively. Digi declared a 3rd interim dividend of 4.0sen (3QFY20: 4.1sen). [...] 3QFY21’s service revenue and EBITDA improved further for the 2nd consecutive quarter by 0.2% QoQ and 5.7% QoQ to RM1,343mn and RM786mn. [...] Alongside the gradual return of the operating and retail environment to normalcy, management’s latest guidance for FY21 is for service revenue to decline by low-single digit % (unchanged) and EBITDA to decline by a low-to-mid single digit (from mid-single digit). [...] Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Driving Resilience Via Sustainable Subscriber Mix

Malaysia

CelcomDigi Berhad is a mobile network operator. The Company offers Internet and wireless telecommunication products and services through the global system for mobile telecommunications (GSM) network. CelcomDigi serves customers in Malaysia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CelcomDigi (CDB MK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Axiata Is Coming Up Cheap

Both the NAV discount and implied stub for Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi merger last November.

David Blennerhassett

CelcomDigi Bhd - Subscribers Still in Growth Trajectory

CDB’s 1HFY23 results met our forecast but disappointed the market. 1HFY23 EBITDA grew 2% YoY underpinned by a 3% growth in subscribers base on...

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd

Link Net: Home Straight For Axiata's MTO

Currently, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 2.5%/12.8%, assuming mid-September payment. Though not as exciting as it was at the time of my...

David Blennerhassett

Driving Resilience Via Sustainable Subscriber Mix

<p>Digi’s 9MFY21 core net profit of RM852mn (-3.0% YoY) came within ours and consensus estimates at 74.6% and 73.4%, respectively. Digi declared a...

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)