Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>There is US$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> while there will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will offset part of the potential passive buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and other similar ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) while there will be passive buying in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Intel Corp (INTC US). 
The selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will offset part of the potential passive buying from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and other similar ETFs.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> in terms of free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> ranks higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> a week later.</li>
</ul>


The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to Apple (AAPL US) in terms of free float market cap.
If NVIDIA ranks higher than Apple on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to NVIDIA and outflows from Apple a week later.


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Apple Announces New AI Features at WDC; Shares Surge to New All-Time Highs</li>
<li>Top Movers: Major Computex Exhibitors See Share Prices Fall Despite Strong Presence</li>
<li>Computex 2024: Chip Companies Notably Competing to Win PC Makers</li>
</ul>


Apple Announces New AI Features at WDC; Shares Surge to New All-Time Highs
Top Movers: Major Computex Exhibitors See Share Prices Fall Despite Strong Presence
Computex 2024: Chip Companies Notably Competing to Win PC Makers


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Unveils New AI Capabilities at WDC; PC Makers Feel the Love from Chip CEOs

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs announced financial results for 1Q’FY24 in May. According to IPO prospectus, ~5.9M shares became eligible for sale following public release of earnings for the first quarter of FY24.</li>
<li>The high-growth semiconductor company filed form S-8 on May 8, 2024. The selling stockholders, including current employees and service providers, offered additional ~3M shares as early lock-up expired.</li>
<li>Astera Labs shares currently trade at rich multiples of ~37x EV/FY24E Revenue and ~25x EV/FY25E Revenue on my revised forecasts.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs announced financial results for 1Q’FY24 in May. According to IPO prospectus, ~5.9M shares became eligible for sale following public release of earnings for the first quarter of FY24.
The high-growth semiconductor company filed form S-8 on May 8, 2024. The selling stockholders, including current employees and service providers, offered additional ~3M shares as early lock-up expired.
Astera Labs shares currently trade at rich multiples of ~37x EV/FY24E Revenue and ~25x EV/FY25E Revenue on my revised forecasts.


Astera Labs: 1Q’FY24 GAAP Net Loss Could Disappoint Investors, Selling Stockholders Offer ~3M Shares

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24).</li><li>FY1Q25 revenue beat Bloomberg consensus of US$24.7bn by 5.5%.</li><li>Data center revenue continued to soar and topped US$22.6bn, up 426.7% YoY and 22.6% QoQ (26.8% QoQ in FY4Q24).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24).FY1Q25 revenue beat Bloomberg consensus of US$24.7bn by 5.5%.Data center revenue continued to soar and topped US$22.6bn, up 426.7% YoY and 22.6% QoQ (26.8% QoQ in FY4Q24).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Unveils New AI Capabilities at WDC; PC Makers Feel the Love from Chip CEOs

Apple's new AI features at WDC lead to record high shares; major Computex exhibitors see share prices drop despite strong presence; chip companies...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Astera Labs: 1Q’FY24 GAAP Net Loss Could Disappoint Investors, Selling Stockholders Offer ~3M Shares

Astera Labs shares underperformed and fell ~24% in May: 1Q’FY24 GAAP net loss could disappoint investors and the selling stockholders may sell...

Andrei Zakharov

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24). FY1Q25 revenue beat. ...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Unveils New AI Capabilities at WDC; PC Makers Feel the Love from Chip CEOs

​Apple's new AI features at WDC lead to record high shares; major Computex exhibitors see share prices drop despite strong presence; chip companies...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Astera Labs: 1Q’FY24 GAAP Net Loss Could Disappoint Investors, Selling Stockholders Offer ~3M Shares

Astera Labs shares underperformed and fell ~24% in May: 1Q’FY24 GAAP net loss could disappoint investors and the selling stockholders may sell...

Andrei Zakharov

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24). FY1Q25 revenue beat. ...

CMB International

Apple's new AI features at WDC lead to record high shares; major Computex exhibitors see share prices drop despite strong presence; chip companies...