Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.</li>
<li>The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.</li>
<li>I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.
The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.
I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.


Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.</li>
<li>Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.</li>
<li>This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.</li>
</ul>


Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.
Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.
This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.


Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

<ul><li>If we consider 2023 as a banner year for AI technology, 2024 is set to be another solid year for both infrastructure investments and downstream demand continue to thrive.</li><li>We reaffirm our positive stance on optical transceiver players, specifically in light of their ongoing capacity expansion and production ramp-up of the high data rate optical modules, e.g., 400G/800G products.</li><li>Among those players we favor Innolight (300308 CH, BUY) and TFC (300394 CH, NR), both of which have leveraged the AI wave effectively through 2023 and stayed on strong trajectory into 2024. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

If we consider 2023 as a banner year for AI technology, 2024 is set to be another solid year for both infrastructure investments and downstream demand continue to thrive.We reaffirm our positive stance on optical transceiver players, specifically in light of their ongoing capacity expansion and production ramp-up of the high data rate optical modules, e.g., 400G/800G products.Among those players we favor Innolight (300308 CH, BUY) and TFC (300394 CH, NR), both of which have leveraged the AI wave effectively through 2023 and stayed on strong trajectory into 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi – Market Outlook on Optical Transceivers

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its...

Sumeet Singh

Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

California-based Astera Labs has filed for an IPO and plans to raise up to $500M. The fabless semiconductor unicorn may be valued at more than $3B,...

Andrei Zakharov

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

Semi – Market Outlook on Optical Transceivers

If we consider 2023 as a banner year for AI technology, 2024 is set to be another solid year for both infrastructure investments and downstream...

CMB International

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