Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the <em>pricing</em> boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We recommend selling FERRARI80 with a return of -2.8%, while opening new positions in ESTEE80, MUFG19, and SONY80.</li><li>The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government approved chip exports to the Middle East.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend selling FERRARI80 with a return of -2.8%, while opening new positions in ESTEE80, MUFG19, and SONY80.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government approved chip exports to the Middle East.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively.</li><li>We also suggest initiating positions in ASML0 1 , a DR referencing ASML Holding N.V. listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, and MWG1 9 , a DR referencing Mobile World Investment Corporation listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.</li><li>The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio was nearly unchanged from the previous day (–0.08%).</li></ul>

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively.We also suggest initiating positions in ASML0 1 , a DR referencing ASML Holding N.V. listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, and MWG1 9 , a DR referencing Mobile World Investment Corporation listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio was nearly unchanged from the previous day (–0.08%).

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>We recommend taking profit on AMD80, which has delivered a holding-period return of +30.1%, following a 23% rally in the underlying US stock after the company secured a deal to supply AI chips to OpenAI (ChatGPT).</li><li>We also recommend selling MUFG19, with a holding-period return of –1.3%, and adding MITSU19, a DR referencing Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</li><li>The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose +1.19% from the previous day, supported by strong gains in US technology stocks, particularly AMD.</li></ul>

We recommend taking profit on AMD80, which has delivered a holding-period return of +30.1%, following a 23% rally in the underlying US stock after the company secured a deal to supply AI chips to OpenAI (ChatGPT).We also recommend selling MUFG19, with a holding-period return of –1.3%, and adding MITSU19, a DR referencing Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose +1.19% from the previous day, supported by strong gains in US technology stocks, particularly AMD.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - OCTOBER 7, 2025 (Eng.)

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively. We also suggest initiating positions in...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - OCTOBER 7, 2025 (Eng.)

We also recommend selling MUFG19, with a holding-period return of –1.3%, and adding MITSU19, a DR referencing Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, listed...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively. We also suggest initiating positions in...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - OCTOBER 7, 2025 (Eng.)

We also recommend selling MUFG19, with a holding-period return of –1.3%, and adding MITSU19, a DR referencing Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, listed...

Krungthai XSpring

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...