Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia Trade Book for September 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.

  The Asia Trade Book for September 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.   Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage. 

Asia Trade Book - September 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - August 2023 - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AAC’s 1H23 net profit of RMB 150mn (-57.1% YoY) was in-line with previous profit warning (RMB 122mn-157mn), mainly due to 1) global smartphone market weakness, 2) intensified competition in acoustics/optics, 3) lower GPM on sales mix shift in ED&amp;PM. For 2H23E, we believe AAC’s revenue/earnings should recover sequentially given inventory restocking, stabilizing optics ASP/margin, client wins in ED&amp;PM and product upgrade in multiple segments.</li><li>To reflect GPM weakness on product mix shift and lower optics margin, we trimmed FY23/24E EPS by 6/1% and our EPS are 36%/20% below consensus.</li><li>While we are positive on seasonal strength in 2H23E and AAC’s non-smartphone product outlook, the stock is now trading at 27.6x/15.7x FY23/24E P/E, which is fair in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC’s 1H23 net profit of RMB 150mn (-57.1% YoY) was in-line with previous profit warning (RMB 122mn-157mn), mainly due to 1) global smartphone market weakness, 2) intensified competition in acoustics/optics, 3) lower GPM on sales mix shift in ED&amp;PM. For 2H23E, we believe AAC’s revenue/earnings should recover sequentially given inventory restocking, stabilizing optics ASP/margin, client wins in ED&amp;PM and product upgrade in multiple segments.To reflect GPM weakness on product mix shift and lower optics margin, we trimmed FY23/24E EPS by 6/1% and our EPS are 36%/20% below consensus.While we are positive on seasonal strength in 2H23E and AAC’s non-smartphone product outlook, the stock is now trading at 27.6x/15.7x FY23/24E P/E, which is fair in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 1H23 Weakness In-Line; Maintain HOLD on Fair Valuation

AAC Technologies' results were weak as expected, with the top line and gross margin both lower. Overall revenue fell 2% y-o-y to CNY 9.22 bn for H1/23. Gross profit declined 27.2% to CNY 1.3 bn, with the gross margin down 4.8 ppts to 14.1%. This was largely due to market competition for the optics and acoustics business, as well as changes in the product mix. Despite the muted sales performance, the company deleveraged further and achieved strong FCF, driven by increased CFO and reduced capex. Liquidity appears to be sound, with 4.4x LTM Cash/ST Debt. Management guided for the optical lens gross margin to be positive in Q4.

  AAC Technologies' results were weak as expected, with the top line and gross margin both lower. Overall revenue fell 2% y-o-y to CNY 9.22 bn for H1/23. Gross profit declined 27.2% to CNY 1.3 bn, with the gross margin down 4.8 ppts to 14.1%. This was largely due to market competition for the optics and acoustics business, as well as changes in the product mix. Despite the muted sales performance, the company deleveraged further and achieved strong FCF, driven by increased CFO and reduced capex. Liquidity appears to be sound, with 4.4x LTM Cash/ST Debt. Management guided for the optical lens gross margin to be positive in Q4. 

AAC Technologies - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 18 August after the close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> (formerly Koolearn) was an ADD. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> is a DELETE. </li>
<li>AAC is a significant flow event, and worth looking at. There are a few odds and ends too.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 18 August after the close.

East Buy Holding (1797 HK) (formerly Koolearn) was an ADD. AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) is a DELETE. 
AAC is a significant flow event, and worth looking at. There are a few odds and ends too.


Hang Seng TECH Sep23 Index Review - A Few BIGLY Events and One-Way Flow of 3.4%

China

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of miniaturized components that include speakers, receivers and microphones in the acoustic segment and others such as haptics vibrators, RF and antennas, and optical lenses. AAC's products are found in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, ultrabooks, notebooks and electronic book-readers.

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AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)

Asia Trade Book - September 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Trade Book for September 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - August 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top...

Lucror Analytics

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 1H23 Weakness In-Line; Maintain HOLD on Fair Valuation

While we are positive on seasonal strength in 2H23E and AAC’s non-smartphone product outlook, the stock is now trading at 27.6x/15.7x FY23/24E P/E,...

CMB International

AAC Technologies - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

AAC Technologies' results were weak as expected, with the top line and gross margin both lower. Overall revenue fell 2% y-o-y to CNY 9.22 bn for...

Lucror Analytics

Hang Seng TECH Sep23 Index Review - A Few BIGLY Events and One-Way Flow of 3.4%

HSTECH is often the most interesting of the 3 major Hang Seng index rebals, and that is the case here too, though the one-way flow is "only" 3.4%...

Travis Lundy

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