Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We have completed roughly half of the 20-day Reference Period for the DAX Equity Indices family for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Three names could move from SDAX to MDAX while the SDAX index could see another 4 ADDs/DELETEs.</li>
</ul>


We have completed roughly half of the 20-day Reference Period for the DAX Equity Indices family for the September 2022 Rebalance.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Three names could move from SDAX to MDAX while the SDAX index could see another 4 ADDs/DELETEs.


DAX/​​MDAX/​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>While no names currently satisfy the requirements to move into or out of the DAX Index, there could be some changes for the MDAX and SDAX Index.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the recent price and volume performance of these names.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.
While no names currently satisfy the requirements to move into or out of the DAX Index, there could be some changes for the MDAX and SDAX Index.
Below is a closer look at the recent price and volume performance of these names.


DAX/​MDAX/​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aareal-bank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21584:1" rel="noopener">Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-euroshop-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21605:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Euroshop Ag (DEQ GR)</a> are currently involved in takeover situations which might also have index change implications.</li>
<li>Based on current data, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rheinmetall-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21700:1" rel="noopener">Rheinmetall (RHM GR)</a> is leading the race to become a DAX ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hellofresh-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26000:1" rel="noopener">HelloFresh (HFG GR)</a> is leading the race to become a DAX DEL.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.

Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR) and Deutsche Euroshop Ag (DEQ GR) are currently involved in takeover situations which might also have index change implications.
Based on current data, Rheinmetall (RHM GR) is leading the race to become a DAX ADD and HelloFresh (HFG GR) is leading the race to become a DAX DEL.


DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Rheinmetall, HelloFresh, & Other Potential Changes

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Atlantic Bid has fulfilled the minimum acceptance condition with acceptances over 60%. The statutory additional acceptance period will start on 31 May and end on 13 June.</li>
<li>I have updated my SOTP, and still believe that the bidders are getting a sweet deal. My fair value estimate is €36.3/share, a c. 13% upside to the current share price.</li>
<li>From a risk arb perspective, gross spread is 2.48%, with estimated annual return of c. 54% assuming settlement on 17 June. Liquidity will be drained afterwards. Long and tender (at €33/share).</li>
</ul>


Atlantic Bid has fulfilled the minimum acceptance condition with acceptances over 60%. The statutory additional acceptance period will start on 31 May and end on 13 June.
I have updated my SOTP, and still believe that the bidders are getting a sweet deal. My fair value estimate is €36.3/share, a c. 13% upside to the current share price.
From a risk arb perspective, gross spread is 2.48%, with estimated annual return of c. 54% assuming settlement on 17 June. Liquidity will be drained afterwards. Long and tender (at €33/share).


Advent & Centerbridge/Aareal: Bid Progress, Attractive Spread

<ul>
<li>The consortium sees value in Aareal, as it intends to come back with a renewed €33/share offer, while getting the main holdouts on board after securing 37% of voting rights. </li>
<li>Aareal's Board will nod again, and BaFin should green light the new offer (6.5% increase). Acceptances needed would be 36.5% of the float. The offer would more palatable.</li>
<li>My SOTP valuation ranges from €36.8 - €39.67share. Gross spread (5 April) is 1.58%, 5.14% annualised assuming settlement by 30 July (it could be earlier). Long ARL GR.</li>
</ul>


The consortium sees value in Aareal, as it intends to come back with a renewed €33/share offer, while getting the main holdouts on board after securing 37% of voting rights. 
Aareal's Board will nod again, and BaFin should green light the new offer (6.5% increase). Acceptances needed would be 36.5% of the float. The offer would more palatable.
My SOTP valuation ranges from €36.8 - €39.67share. Gross spread (5 April) is 1.58%, 5.14% annualised assuming settlement by 30 July (it could be earlier). Long ARL GR.


Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal: Getting the Holdouts on Board

Germany

Aareal Bank AG offers structured real estate financing, property management, and information technology consulting services for the real estate industry. Aareal operates in Europe and North America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR)

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Delivery Hero has to climb one rank to get into DAX. MDAX and SDAX could see multiple index changes. Takkt's recent negative momentum could have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX

Hochtief AG and Hella GmbH could move from SDAX to MDAX and Grand City Properties and Uniper SE could move from MDAX to SDAX. There could be 2...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Rheinmetall, HelloFresh, & Other Potential Changes

Based on current share prices, DAX, MDAX, and SDAX indices seem likely to experience one or more changes each in the September 2022 Regular Review.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Advent & Centerbridge/Aareal: Bid Progress, Attractive Spread

Atlantic has fulfilled the minimum acceptance condition. The additional acceptance period will start on 31 May. Spread is attractive.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal: Getting the Holdouts on Board

The consortium considers an improved, more palatable offer after securing support from shareholders holding approximately 37% of the voting rights....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DAX/​​MDAX/​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Delivery Hero has to climb one rank to get into DAX. MDAX and SDAX could see multiple index changes. Takkt's recent negative momentum could have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/​MDAX/​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX

Hochtief AG and Hella GmbH could move from SDAX to MDAX and Grand City Properties and Uniper SE could move from MDAX to SDAX. There could be 2...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Rheinmetall, HelloFresh, & Other Potential Changes

Based on current share prices, DAX, MDAX, and SDAX indices seem likely to experience one or more changes each in the September 2022 Regular Review.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Advent & Centerbridge/Aareal: Bid Progress, Attractive Spread

Atlantic has fulfilled the minimum acceptance condition. The additional acceptance period will start on 31 May. Spread is attractive.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal: Getting the Holdouts on Board

The consortium considers an improved, more palatable offer after securing support from shareholders holding approximately 37% of the voting rights....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Some Changes for SDAX and MDAX

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal: Getting the Holdouts on Board