European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 26 January, the consortium offered a "best and final" offer of €31/share, a 6.9% increase vs. the initial one. Minimum acceptance threshold is 60%. Offer extended till 2 February.</li>
<li>Petrus and Teleios (together hold c.21% stake) consider the new offer to be a lousy deal for shareholders, mainly because of diverging views over the value of Software unit Aareon.</li>
<li>A 11.5% gross spread, among the highest in the European space, reflects uncertainty about the final outcome. The 2022e dividend yield is 5.2% (Capital IQ consensus). Speculative buy.</li>
</ul>


On 26 January, the consortium offered a "best and final" offer of €31/share, a 6.9% increase vs. the initial one. Minimum acceptance threshold is 60%. Offer extended till 2 February.
Petrus and Teleios (together hold c.21% stake) consider the new offer to be a lousy deal for shareholders, mainly because of diverging views over the value of Software unit Aareon.
A 11.5% gross spread, among the highest in the European space, reflects uncertainty about the final outcome. The 2022e dividend yield is 5.2% (Capital IQ consensus). Speculative buy.


Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: "Best and Final" Offer

<ul>
<li>On 23 November, Aareal Bank agreed to a €29/share offer, c. 35% premium to 3-month VWAP, implied equity value €1,736 million, 16.5x Fwd P/E and 0.67x Price/Next FY BVPS (Capital IQ consensus).</li>
<li>The offer has been dubbed too low by several shareholders, which could prevent squeeze-out. Blue-sky, Aareal could be worth up to €35.8/share (blended average of comps-based Fwd P/E and P/B). </li>
<li>As of 29 November, the shares closed at €29.08, 0.3% above offer price. The market cautiously awaits a sweetened offer. Considering the downside, I would recommend speculative buy.</li>
</ul>


On 23 November, Aareal Bank agreed to a €29/share offer, c. 35% premium to 3-month VWAP, implied equity value €1,736 million, 16.5x Fwd P/E and 0.67x Price/Next FY BVPS (Capital IQ consensus).
The offer has been dubbed too low by several shareholders, which could prevent squeeze-out. Blue-sky, Aareal could be worth up to €35.8/share (blended average of comps-based Fwd P/E and P/B). 
As of 29 November, the shares closed at €29.08, 0.3% above offer price. The market cautiously awaits a sweetened offer. Considering the downside, I would recommend speculative buy.


Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Agreed Takeover Offer

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

Germany

Aareal Bank AG offers structured real estate financing, property management, and information technology consulting services for the real estate industry. Aareal operates in Europe and North America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR)

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: "Best and Final" Offer

The consortium has raised its offer to a "best and final" €31/share. Petrus and Teleios still believe it is too low. Gross spread is a high 11.5%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Agreed Takeover Offer

The offer price has been dubbed too low by activist shareholders. The market cautiously awaits a sweetened offer. Considering the downside, I would...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures. But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: "Best and Final" Offer

The consortium has raised its offer to a "best and final" €31/share. Petrus and Teleios still believe it is too low. Gross spread is a high 11.5%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Agreed Takeover Offer

The offer price has been dubbed too low by activist shareholders. The market cautiously awaits a sweetened offer. Considering the downside, I would...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures. But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the...

Greg Gibbs

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: "Best and Final" Offer