IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.</li>
<li>A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.</li>
<li>The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Abacus Property (ABP AU) has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.
A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.
The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.


Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in February with the H1 results announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> announced <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230216/pdf/45lns0hn3gdwmp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an intention to spin off</a> an ASX-Listed Self Storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets.</li>
<li>The stock popped 7.4% to A$3.06 but is -16% since. In April they dropped their equity holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>, in May they <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230518/pdf/05ptw7r9scdhy2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updated</a> again.  </li>
<li>Last week they had a big new <strong><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230607/pdf/05qfhbm08qs51z.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Investor Presentation</a></strong> saying they would go ahead. There's a trade in here. </li>
</ul>


Back in February with the H1 results announcement, Abacus Property (ABP AU) announced an intention to spin off an ASX-Listed Self Storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets.
The stock popped 7.4% to A$3.06 but is -16% since. In April they dropped their equity holding in National Storage REIT (NSR AU), in May they updated again.  
Last week they had a big new Investor Presentation saying they would go ahead. There's a trade in here. 


Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift - The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the March rebalance complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a> could be deleted from the index and there will be capping changes.</li>
<li>The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$21m. There are three stocks with over A$4m to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:959:1" rel="noopener">Goodman Group (GMG AU)</a> is an inclusion to a global index in March and that buying will far outweigh the selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With the review period for the March rebalance complete, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) could be deleted from the index and there will be capping changes.
The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$21m. There are three stocks with over A$4m to trade.

Goodman Group (GMG AU) is an inclusion to a global index in March and that buying will far outweigh the selling from the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU). 


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

Australia

Abacus Group is a diversified property investment and management company. The Company provides exposure to a portfolio of commercial office, retail, and self storage real estates. Abacus Group serves customers in Australia.

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Abacus Group (ABG AU)

Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. Our SoTP valuation is...

Arun George

Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift - The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

ABP will spin off its self storage business. Self storage businesses trade at higher multiples|lower yields than commercial/diversified REITs. It's...

Travis Lundy

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes

ASK could be deleted from the index while GMG will be capped at 10%. The selling in GMG will be far outweighted by the inclusion of the stock in a...

Brian Freitas

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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