External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of 23.1x.</li><li>Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at FY25 PE of 18.6x vs. 10-year average of 28.8x, pharmaceutical is trading at FY25 PE of 20.9x vs. 10-year average PE of 22.3x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of FY25 9.3x vs. 10-year average PE of 18.3x.</li><li>Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 21%/32% and 14%/14% respectively.</li></ul>

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of 23.1x.Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at FY25 PE of 18.6x vs. 10-year average of 28.8x, pharmaceutical is trading at FY25 PE of 20.9x vs. 10-year average PE of 22.3x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of FY25 9.3x vs. 10-year average PE of 18.3x.Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 21%/32% and 14%/14% respectively.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week's Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious.</li>
<li>A historic selloff has ensued and significant damage has been done as market dynamics have worsened.</li>
<li>Until we see some base-building process develop alongside improving market dynamics, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the SPX is below its 200-day MA.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week's Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious.
A historic selloff has ensued and significant damage has been done as market dynamics have worsened.
Until we see some base-building process develop alongside improving market dynamics, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the SPX is below its 200-day MA.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, with the resistance at 1,360/1,364 points and the support at 1,343/1,338 points.</li><li>Investors are recommended to start speculative buying with a stop-loss point at 1,343 points.</li><li>The focus should be on large cap stocks tied to domestic consumption, such as CPALL, CRC, CPAXT, ADVANC, and INTUCH.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, with the resistance at 1,360/1,364 points and the support at 1,343/1,338 points.Investors are recommended to start speculative buying with a stop-loss point at 1,343 points.The focus should be on large cap stocks tied to domestic consumption, such as CPALL, CRC, CPAXT, ADVANC, and INTUCH.

United States

Abbott Laboratories discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells a broad and diversified line of health care products and services. The Company's products include pharmaceuticals, nutritional, diagnostics, and vascular products. Abbott markets its products worldwide through affiliates and distributors.

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Abbott Laboratories (ABT US)

Pakistan Listed Consumer Comp Sheet

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of...

Topline Securities

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Upgrading Health Care $XLV; Downgrading Transportation $IYT; Still Bearish and Cautious; Sell...

Vermilion Research

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, with the resistance at 1,360/1,364 points and the support at 1,343/1,338 points. Investors are...

Krungthai XSpring

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