Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

aka Brands Holding Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target and slightly tweaking our 2026 and 2027 revenue and EBITDA projections after a.k.a. Brands reported a solid 1Q26 (March) which, even adjusted for material tariff and inventory shifts, was at or above expectations.</li><li> With the company now shifting to materially tariff (and supply chain) impacted quarterly comparisons, we believe a.k.a. Brands will be able to drive top line and EBITDA growth, setting the stage for further expansion potential in 2027 and beyond.</li><li> Further, we believe management is positioning the company to return to registering material operating leverage as store growth and wholesale expansion begin to drive higher overall margins.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target and slightly tweaking our 2026 and 2027 revenue and EBITDA projections after a.k.a. Brands reported a solid 1Q26 (March) which, even adjusted for material tariff and inventory shifts, was at or above expectations. With the company now shifting to materially tariff (and supply chain) impacted quarterly comparisons, we believe a.k.a. Brands will be able to drive top line and EBITDA growth, setting the stage for further expansion potential in 2027 and beyond. Further, we believe management is positioning the company to return to registering material operating leverage as store growth and wholesale expansion begin to drive higher overall margins.

AKA: 1Q Review: Pivoting to Growth; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

<ul><li>Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.</li><li>From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.</li><li>We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.</li></ul>

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for a.k.a. Brands with the company announcing 1Q26 (March) results after the close on Tuesday.</li><li> We believe 1Q will be the last quarter of material pain, driven by the imposition of tariffs last April and the resulting reshaping of the company’s supply chain, which has overshadowed significant positive progress on the wholesale and retail front at Princess Polly and a continued shift to a true lifestyle brand for Petal & Pup.</li><li> When coupled with the continued global turn at Culture Kings, we believe AKA is nearing a key pivot to demonstrate material progress towards profitability and recognition by investors as a compelling specialty retailing growth play.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for a.k.a. Brands with the company announcing 1Q26 (March) results after the close on Tuesday. We believe 1Q will be the last quarter of material pain, driven by the imposition of tariffs last April and the resulting reshaping of the company’s supply chain, which has overshadowed significant positive progress on the wholesale and retail front at Princess Polly and a continued shift to a true lifestyle brand for Petal & Pup. When coupled with the continued global turn at Culture Kings, we believe AKA is nearing a key pivot to demonstrate material progress towards profitability and recognition by investors as a compelling specialty retailing growth play.

AKA: 1Q Preview: Little More Pain Before the Gain; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $7 price target for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.</li><li> With product flows normalizing, Vince is able to once again offer compelling complete new looks for Spring/Summer, with a focus on multiple colors, gingham patterns, denim and light weight sweaters and tops.</li><li> Further, we are also beginning to see the potential for accessories expansion with new handbags and leather goods, including a material belt upgrade.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $7 price target for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey. With product flows normalizing, Vince is able to once again offer compelling complete new looks for Spring/Summer, with a focus on multiple colors, gingham patterns, denim and light weight sweaters and tops. Further, we are also beginning to see the potential for accessories expansion with new handbags and leather goods, including a material belt upgrade.

VNCE: Snapping then Store: Sizzling for Summer; Reiterate Buy, $7 PT

United States

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A (ANF US)

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector. Charts highlighted: AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH,...

Vermilion Research

AKA: 1Q Review: Pivoting to Growth; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target and slightly tweaking our 2026 and 2027 revenue and EBITDA projections after a.k.a. Brands...

Small Cap Consumer Research

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide...

Vermilion Research

AKA: 1Q Preview: Little More Pain Before the Gain; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for a.k.a. Brands with the company announcing 1Q26 (March) results after the close on...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VNCE: Snapping then Store: Sizzling for Summer; Reiterate Buy, $7 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $7 price target for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New...

Small Cap Consumer Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)