Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.</li>
<li>With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.</li>
<li>We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.
With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.
We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.


Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

aka Brands Holding Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections with a.k.a. Brands announcing 2Q26 (June) results after the close next Wednesday.</li><li> We believe, with the company anniversarying material shocks from China tariffs which impacted product flows and margins, the potential for upside from Street expectations remain strong and will allow a.k.a. Brands to demonstrate what should be material operating leverage opportunities from increased Princess Polly stores (14 worldwide versus 10 last year) and wholesale expansion for Petal & Pup and Princess Polly.</li><li> Further, we expect tariff refunds have allowed the company to even further reduce debt and invest in the core business.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections with a.k.a. Brands announcing 2Q26 (June) results after the close next Wednesday. We believe, with the company anniversarying material shocks from China tariffs which impacted product flows and margins, the potential for upside from Street expectations remain strong and will allow a.k.a. Brands to demonstrate what should be material operating leverage opportunities from increased Princess Polly stores (14 worldwide versus 10 last year) and wholesale expansion for Petal & Pup and Princess Polly. Further, we expect tariff refunds have allowed the company to even further reduce debt and invest in the core business.

AKA: 2Q Preview: Further Proof of the Business Model; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.</li><li> We believe, with solid product flows, continued expansion into new hues and patterns for Summer, great offerings in dresses, sweaters, linen and tops, Vince has continued to provide their affluent customer base with multiple reasons to purchase full price looks.</li><li> We continue to view Vince as a compelling winner in 2026 and remain impressed with the relevance of their offerings and ability to capture a higher share of wallet.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey. We believe, with solid product flows, continued expansion into new hues and patterns for Summer, great offerings in dresses, sweaters, linen and tops, Vince has continued to provide their affluent customer base with multiple reasons to purchase full price looks. We continue to view Vince as a compelling winner in 2026 and remain impressed with the relevance of their offerings and ability to capture a higher share of wallet.

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Winning the Summer Season; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

United States

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A (ANF US)

Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

4100 is clear resistance to watch on the $SPX, while support continues to be at 3910; this has been the range for a month. We lean breakdown below...

Vermilion Research

AKA: 2Q Preview: Further Proof of the Business Model; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections with a.k.a. Brands announcing 2Q26 (June) results after the close next...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Winning the Summer Season; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New...

Small Cap Consumer Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Financials, Materials, and Industrials. We discuss implications of the break below the key 1.45% support level on...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

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