Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>KTX expects the SET Index to weaken, with the support at 1,445/1,425 points and the resistance at 1,505/1,535 points, This assessment is grounded in the assumption that foreign fund inflows into the SET may be deterred due to unattractive valuations and the looming risk of a credit rating downgrade by Fitch or Moody's.</li><li>KTX has revised its index forecast downward to 1,477 points, reflecting the deceleration in the Thai economy.</li><li>The new government is undertaking a substantial overhaul of the Thai economy, structured into four distinct stages.</li></ul>

KTX expects the SET Index to weaken, with the support at 1,445/1,425 points and the resistance at 1,505/1,535 points, This assessment is grounded in the assumption that foreign fund inflows into the SET may be deterred due to unattractive valuations and the looming risk of a credit rating downgrade by Fitch or Moody's.KTX has revised its index forecast downward to 1,477 points, reflecting the deceleration in the Thai economy.The new government is undertaking a substantial overhaul of the Thai economy, structured into four distinct stages.

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

aka Brands Holding Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target after a.k.a. Brands Holding reported basically inline 2Q26 (June) top line and EBTIDA results, driven by solid growth in the domestic and non-Australian markets, as the company anniversaried the highly negative impacts of tariffs, and the focus on new Princess Polly stores, wholesale expansion and Culture Kings’ margin growth begins to demonstrate the ability of a.k.a. to register solid EBITDA growth.</li><li> Further, the company provided basically inline initial 3Q and unchanged 2026 guidance; we note the 3Q guide projects YoY top line growth of 8.8% to 11.5% and EBITDA expansion of 14% to 21%.</li><li> Further, management announced the first Culture Kings domestic store expansions since the initial Las Vegas opening in 4Q22 and guided to 10 new Princess Polly store openings in 2027.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target after a.k.a. Brands Holding reported basically inline 2Q26 (June) top line and EBTIDA results, driven by solid growth in the domestic and non-Australian markets, as the company anniversaried the highly negative impacts of tariffs, and the focus on new Princess Polly stores, wholesale expansion and Culture Kings’ margin growth begins to demonstrate the ability of a.k.a. to register solid EBITDA growth. Further, the company provided basically inline initial 3Q and unchanged 2026 guidance; we note the 3Q guide projects YoY top line growth of 8.8% to 11.5% and EBITDA expansion of 14% to 21%. Further, management announced the first Culture Kings domestic store expansions since the initial Las Vegas opening in 4Q22 and guided to 10 new Princess Polly store openings in 2027.

AKA: 2Q Review: Reproving the Model’s Worth; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

United States

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A (ANF US)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Monthly Report: October 2023

KTX expects the SET Index to weaken, with the support at 1,445/1,425 points and the resistance at 1,505/1,535 points, This assessment is grounded...

Krungthai XSpring

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

AKA: 2Q Review: Reproving the Model’s Worth; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target after a.k.a. Brands Holding reported basically inline 2Q26 (June) top line and EBTIDA...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)