Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.</li>
<li>There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title</li>
<li>We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.
There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title
We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)


Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX has downgraded our short-term outlook on the SET to neutral due to escalating risk factors, including: i) the continued strengthening of the USD amid a deeper recession in Europe; ii) intensifying geopolitical risks, which have led investors to raise the MRP to compensate for heightened uncertainty; iii) declining EPS estimates for the SET following the poor 3Q24 results; and iv) DELTA's inclusion under the cash balance rule, which is likely to put additional downward pressure on the SET, in line with the decline in the EPS estimates.</li><li>In response to these risks, we have increased the MRP to 4.48%, in line with the 90-day moving average.</li><li>This suggests that the SET's buying point has retreated to 1,397 points, with a gradual selling range between 1,458 and 1,530 points.</li></ul>

KTX has downgraded our short-term outlook on the SET to neutral due to escalating risk factors, including: i) the continued strengthening of the USD amid a deeper recession in Europe; ii) intensifying geopolitical risks, which have led investors to raise the MRP to compensate for heightened uncertainty; iii) declining EPS estimates for the SET following the poor 3Q24 results; and iv) DELTA's inclusion under the cash balance rule, which is likely to put additional downward pressure on the SET, in line with the decline in the EPS estimates.In response to these risks, we have increased the MRP to 4.48%, in line with the 90-day moving average.This suggests that the SET's buying point has retreated to 1,397 points, with a gradual selling range between 1,458 and 1,530 points.

Less Bullish View on the SET Due to Greater Risks

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding and raising our projections for 2HFY26 and FY27, driven by strong full price selling at Vince and, for the first time, incorporating the recent October’s Very Own (“OVO”) acquisition, which we project to be EPS neutral in 2HFY26 and accretive in FY27.</li><li> FY26 has been a triumph for Vince, as the premium brand has continued to hit the right fashion notes, add wholesale share with key partners and drive higher levels of full price selling and operating leverage.</li><li> Further, we believe the Fall collection, with tariff driven issues abated, is demonstrating the strength of the Vince model to be a key lifestyle brand to its affluent customer base.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding and raising our projections for 2HFY26 and FY27, driven by strong full price selling at Vince and, for the first time, incorporating the recent October’s Very Own (“OVO”) acquisition, which we project to be EPS neutral in 2HFY26 and accretive in FY27. FY26 has been a triumph for Vince, as the premium brand has continued to hit the right fashion notes, add wholesale share with key partners and drive higher levels of full price selling and operating leverage. Further, we believe the Fall collection, with tariff driven issues abated, is demonstrating the strength of the Vince model to be a key lifestyle brand to its affluent customer base.

VNCE: 2Q Review: Moving from Forte to Forte; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding with the company announcing 2QFY26 (July) results before the open next Thursday.</li><li> With the company pre-announcing 2Q results at the higher end of their guidance and completing the acquisition of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) last week, we believe Vince is setting the stage for continued strong organic top and bottom line growth, with OVO slotted as a key FY27 upside driver.</li><li> We note the 2Q call will be the first to provide updated guidance including OVO; while we do not expect the acquisition to be material in FY26, we do expect management to provide a very positive update on the multiple positives of the deal and the current environment.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding with the company announcing 2QFY26 (July) results before the open next Thursday. With the company pre-announcing 2Q results at the higher end of their guidance and completing the acquisition of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) last week, we believe Vince is setting the stage for continued strong organic top and bottom line growth, with OVO slotted as a key FY27 upside driver. We note the 2Q call will be the first to provide updated guidance including OVO; while we do not expect the acquisition to be material in FY26, we do expect management to provide a very positive update on the multiple positives of the deal and the current environment.

VNCE: 2Q Preview: Upside, Acquisitions Cap A Momentous 2Q; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) and a 5% stake in OVO’s intellectual property (“IP”), concurrent with alliance partner Authentic Brands purchasing a controlling 51% of the OVO IP.</li><li> Further, Vince also announced 2QFY26 results will be at the higher end of management guidance.</li><li> We view the OVO acquisition (which will be accretive in FY27) as a great diversification play into higher-end (primarily men’s) Streetwear, which can leverage many of the positive characteristics of the Vince business model.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) and a 5% stake in OVO’s intellectual property (“IP”), concurrent with alliance partner Authentic Brands purchasing a controlling 51% of the OVO IP. Further, Vince also announced 2QFY26 results will be at the higher end of management guidance. We view the OVO acquisition (which will be accretive in FY27) as a great diversification play into higher-end (primarily men’s) Streetwear, which can leverage many of the positive characteristics of the Vince business model.

VNCE: OVO Acquisition; 2Q At Upper End; Expanding the Model; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

United States

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A (ANF US)

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish $SPX $IWM $QQQ; MSCI EAFE $EFA, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and Europe $HEDJ $FEZ to Join the Party?...

Vermilion Research

Less Bullish View on the SET Due to Greater Risks

KTX has downgraded our short-term outlook on the SET to neutral due to escalating risk factors, including: i) the continued strengthening of the...

Krungthai XSpring

VNCE: 2Q Review: Moving from Forte to Forte; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding and raising our projections for 2HFY26 and FY27, driven by strong full...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VNCE: 2Q Preview: Upside, Acquisitions Cap A Momentous 2Q; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding with the company announcing 2QFY26 (July) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VNCE: OVO Acquisition; 2Q At Upper End; Expanding the Model; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of...

Small Cap Consumer Research

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