Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27031:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAP IN)</a>  vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9661:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Finance (LTF IN)</a>  price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9661:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Finance (LTF IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27031:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAP IN)</a> targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAP IN)  vs. L&amp;T Finance (LTF IN)  price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long L&amp;T Finance (LTF IN) and short Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAP IN) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


L&T Finance (LTF IN) Vs Aditya Birla (ABCAP IN): IRDAI Proposal Spurs 9% Drop, Stat Arb Opportunity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFC</li><li>This has been despite enjoying huge structural advantage (vs peers) like low cost of funds and liquidity backstop</li><li>In recent years, several corporates have either revived/restructured their NBFCs or acquired/set up new ones</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFCThis has been despite enjoying huge structural advantage (vs peers) like low cost of funds and liquidity backstopIn recent years, several corporates have either revived/restructured their NBFCs or acquired/set up new onesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Diversified NBFCs: Corporate sponsored NBFCs: call option at formation lap

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

<ul><li>Titan: Titan’s top line grew 22% YoY to INR 141.6bn (HSIE: INR 148.2bn)</li><li>Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 24% YoY to INR125.6bn (in-line)</li><li>Festive purchases resulted in double-digit buyer growth in jewellery, moderation was seen after Nov-23 though Consolidated EBITDAM contracted 55 bps YoY to 11% (in-line)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: Titan’s top line grew 22% YoY to INR 141.6bn (HSIE: INR 148.2bn)Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 24% YoY to INR125.6bn (in-line)Festive purchases resulted in double-digit buyer growth in jewellery, moderation was seen after Nov-23 though Consolidated EBITDAM contracted 55 bps YoY to 11% (in-line)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Astral, Aditya Birla Capital, IRB Infra

<ul><li>India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on select categories of consumer credit</li><li>Our discussions with experts suggest that the RBI’s note of caution is largely centred on small-ticket personal loans (STPL) (ticket size</li><li>The RBI’s risk-weight measures are likely to increase the hurdle rate for banks and NBFCs towards unsecured consumer loans, resulting in a material growth deceleration</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on select categories of consumer creditOur discussions with experts suggest that the RBI’s note of caution is largely centred on small-ticket personal loans (STPL) (ticket sizeThe RBI’s risk-weight measures are likely to increase the hurdle rate for banks and NBFCs towards unsecured consumer loans, resulting in a material growth decelerationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: Emerging Long-Tail Risks in Unsecured Credit

India

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd (ABCL) is a non-banking financial company and the financial services flagship of the Aditya Birla Group. It offers a comprehensive suite of financial solutions, including loans, investments, insurance, and payments. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 2007.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAP IN)

L&T Finance (LTF IN) Vs Aditya Birla (ABCAP IN): IRDAI Proposal Spurs 9% Drop, Stat Arb Opportunity

5% target return after an IRDAI proposal triggers a sharp dislocation, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity for mean-reversion traders.

Gaudenz Schneider

Diversified NBFCs: Corporate sponsored NBFCs: call option at formation lap

Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFC

HDFC Securities

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Astral, Aditya Birla Capital, IRB Infra

Festive purchases resulted in double-digit buyer growth in jewellery, moderation was seen after Nov-23 though Consolidated EBITDAM contracted 55...

HDFC Securities

Leveraged Financials: Emerging Long-Tail Risks in Unsecured Credit

India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)