Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our flash checks across a couple of dealers indicate pressure on margins across the industry. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> is trying hard to gain market share.</li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pnb-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23613:1" rel="noopener">PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/varun-beverages-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23653:1" rel="noopener">Varun Beverages (VBL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6434:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN)</a> show up as interesting ARs to read. </li>
</ul>


Our flash checks across a couple of dealers indicate pressure on margins across the industry. Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) is trying hard to gain market share.
Other names discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) and Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 

Varun Beverages (VBL IN) and Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN) show up as interesting ARs to read. 


[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-fashion-and-retail-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19048:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)</a> on 1st April announced a vertical demerger and separate listing of its matured and asset-light Madura brand portfolio.</li>
<li>Assessment of demerger: whether it is seriously a value creation opportunity or just a strategic gimmick for merger-demerger in Mega Bull Run.</li>
<li>Valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-fashion-and-retail-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19048:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)</a> , whether any juice left in the company?</li>
</ul>



Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN) on 1st April announced a vertical demerger and separate listing of its matured and asset-light Madura brand portfolio.
Assessment of demerger: whether it is seriously a value creation opportunity or just a strategic gimmick for merger-demerger in Mega Bull Run.
Valuation of Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN) , whether any juice left in the company?


ABFRL's Demerger: A Game-Changer or a Gamble?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Financial Performance: The company’s revenue grew by 16% YoY and the growth was led by network expansion and category expansion.</li><li>Its EBITDA grew by 27% YoY mainly driven by a shift in the festive season and strong measure took on profitability part.</li><li>However, the company’s PAT was negative at 108Cr due to increase in interest cost from higher borrowings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Financial Performance: The company’s revenue grew by 16% YoY and the growth was led by network expansion and category expansion.Its EBITDA grew by 27% YoY mainly driven by a shift in the festive season and strong measure took on profitability part.However, the company’s PAT was negative at 108Cr due to increase in interest cost from higher borrowings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd. -Long Road to Recovery; Maintain HOLD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 600/sh, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~10% CAGR over FY24-26E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 and (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segment</li><li>Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin</li><li>Volume stood at 9.16mmscmd (+26% YoY, -2% QoQ). Deepak Nitrite: We maintain SELL on Deepak Nitrite (DNL), with a price target of INR 1,448 (WACC 12%, terminal growth 4%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 600/sh, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~10% CAGR over FY24-26E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 and (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segmentQ3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA marginVolume stood at 9.16mmscmd (+26% YoY, -2% QoQ). Deepak Nitrite: We maintain SELL on Deepak Nitrite (DNL), with a price target of INR 1,448 (WACC 12%, terminal growth 4%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SBFC Finance Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbfc-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36713:1" rel="noopener">SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC IN) </a>raised around US$131m in its India IPO, after the deal was priced at INR57/share. Its six-month lockup will expire on 12th Feb 2024. </li>
<li>SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC IN) raised around US$131m in its India IPO, after the deal was priced at INR57/share. Its six-month lockup will expire on 12th Feb 2024. 
SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry - Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits

India

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd provides a wide range of mid-priced garments for men. The Company's collection includes internationally styled formal, elite, casual, party, and wedding apparel.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)

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Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)

[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

Industry margins under pressure, Voltas Ltd striving for market share. Other companies discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Vedant Fashions,...

Pranav Bhavsar

ABFRL's Demerger: A Game-Changer or a Gamble?

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd announces vertical demerger of Madura brand portfolio, sparking debate on value creation vs strategic gimmick...

Nimish Maheshwari

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd. -Long Road to Recovery; Maintain HOLD

Financial Performance: The company’s revenue grew by 16% YoY and the growth was led by network expansion and category expansion.

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin

HDFC Securities

SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry - Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits

SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC IN) raised around US$131m in its India IPO, after the deal was priced at INR57/share. Its six-month lockup will expire...

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

​Industry margins under pressure, Voltas Ltd striving for market share. Other companies discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Vedant Fashions,...

Pranav Bhavsar

ABFRL's Demerger: A Game-Changer or a Gamble?

​Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd announces vertical demerger of Madura brand portfolio, sparking debate on value creation vs strategic gimmick...

Nimish Maheshwari

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd. -Long Road to Recovery; Maintain HOLD

Financial Performance: The company’s revenue grew by 16% YoY and the growth was led by network expansion and category expansion.

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin

HDFC Securities

SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry - Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits

SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC IN) raised around US$131m in its India IPO, after the deal was priced at INR57/share. Its six-month lockup will expire...

Ethan Aw

Industry margins under pressure, Voltas Ltd striving for market share. Other companies discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Vedant Fashions,...

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd announces vertical demerger of Madura brand portfolio, sparking debate on value creation vs strategic gimmick...