Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ABLBL demerger creates a focused entity with market-leading premium brands, providing a stable foundation by separating the high-margin apparel business from ABFRL’s weaker assets.</li>
<li>ABLBL core lifestyle portfolio, including Louis Philippe and Peter England, boasts dominant market share in key segments and enjoys exceptionally strong brand recall among consumers.</li>
<li>Future growth hinges on wildcards American Eagle and Reebok. The Reebok turnaround offers significant upside by tapping into the high-growth, lucrative Indian sportswear and athleisure market.</li>
</ul>


The ABLBL demerger creates a focused entity with market-leading premium brands, providing a stable foundation by separating the high-margin apparel business from ABFRL’s weaker assets.
ABLBL core lifestyle portfolio, including Louis Philippe and Peter England, boasts dominant market share in key segments and enjoys exceptionally strong brand recall among consumers.
Future growth hinges on wildcards American Eagle and Reebok. The Reebok turnaround offers significant upside by tapping into the high-growth, lucrative Indian sportswear and athleisure market.


Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands (ABLBL IN) | A Sportswear Wildcard

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail / Equity Bottom-Up

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-fashion-and-retail-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19048:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)</a> demerged its business into two focussed entities, ABLBL(Stable Business) and ABFRL(High growth Business).</li>
<li>The separation aligns capital with business maturity isolating cash-generating lifestyle brands from high-growth, capital-hungry verticals like ethnic, luxury, and digital-first.</li>
<li>The two entities are targeting a combined INR 30,000 Cr in revenue and 3x cash profit by FY30 through unlocking sharper execution, better capital efficiency, and distinct investor appeal.</li>
</ul>



Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN) demerged its business into two focussed entities, ABLBL(Stable Business) and ABFRL(High growth Business).
The separation aligns capital with business maturity isolating cash-generating lifestyle brands from high-growth, capital-hungry verticals like ethnic, luxury, and digital-first.
The two entities are targeting a combined INR 30,000 Cr in revenue and 3x cash profit by FY30 through unlocking sharper execution, better capital efficiency, and distinct investor appeal.


Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Resilient growth amid headwinds: Despite a challenging environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 9% YoY, driven by strong performances in Ethnic (up 19% YoY), TMRW (up 27% YoY), and an 11% YoY increase in Luxury retail.</li><li>Profitability improved notably across segments, with gross margins expanding 848 bps YoY to 63.2%.</li><li>EBITDA rose to Rs 205 Cr in Q4 with EBITDA margins at 11.9%, up 970bps YoY, driven by sharp margin expansion in Pantaloons and Ethnic segments. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Resilient growth amid headwinds: Despite a challenging environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 9% YoY, driven by strong performances in Ethnic (up 19% YoY), TMRW (up 27% YoY), and an 11% YoY increase in Luxury retail.Profitability improved notably across segments, with gross margins expanding 848 bps YoY to 63.2%.EBITDA rose to Rs 205 Cr in Q4 with EBITDA margins at 11.9%, up 970bps YoY, driven by sharp margin expansion in Pantaloons and Ethnic segments. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd - Resilient Growth, Short-Term Challenges Remain

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL)’s revenue growth remained muted at ~3% YoY (in line) in 3QFY25.</li><li>The growth was driven mainly by Ethnic and TMRW (to be part of demerged ABFRL), whereas growth remained muted in Lifestyle Brands (robust LTL offset by weak wholesale) and Pantaloons (shift in Pujo dates).</li><li>EBITDA was up 15% YoY (11% beat), driven by broad-based improvement in profitability, with ~150bp YoY expansion in consolidated EBITDA margin.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL)’s revenue growth remained muted at ~3% YoY (in line) in 3QFY25.The growth was driven mainly by Ethnic and TMRW (to be part of demerged ABFRL), whereas growth remained muted in Lifestyle Brands (robust LTL offset by weak wholesale) and Pantaloons (shift in Pujo dates).EBITDA was up 15% YoY (11% beat), driven by broad-based improvement in profitability, with ~150bp YoY expansion in consolidated EBITDA margin.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail - GM Expansion Drives Beat; Near-Term Focus on Demerge

India

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ABFRL) is an Indian fashion retail company offering a diverse portfolio of apparel and non-apparel accessories, including casual wear, formal wear, ethnic wear, and footwear. The company operates prominent brands like Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, and Pantaloons. ABFRL is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 2015.

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Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL IN)

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands (ABLBL IN) | A Sportswear Wildcard

The ABLBL demerger creates a focused entity with market-leading premium brands. Future growth potential lies in American Eagle and Reebok's...

Pranav Bhavsar

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We currently forecast 44 migrations for the AMFI July reclassification. Some IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward migrations...

Brian Freitas

Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd demerged into two entities, ABLBL and ABFRL, to align capital with business maturity and target INR 30,000 Cr...

Nimish Maheshwari

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd - Resilient Growth, Short-Term Challenges Remain

Despite a challenging environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 9% YoY, driven by strong performances in Ethnic (up 19% YoY)

Axis Direct

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail - GM Expansion Drives Beat; Near-Term Focus on Demerge

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL)’s revenue growth remained muted at ~3% YoY (in line) in 3QFY25. The growth was driven mainly by Ethnic and...

Motilal Oswal

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Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands (ABLBL IN) | A Sportswear Wildcard

​The ABLBL demerger creates a focused entity with market-leading premium brands. Future growth potential lies in American Eagle and Reebok's...

Pranav Bhavsar

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We currently forecast 44 migrations for the AMFI July reclassification. Some IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward migrations...

Brian Freitas

Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger

​Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd demerged into two entities, ABLBL and ABFRL, to align capital with business maturity and target INR 30,000 Cr...

Nimish Maheshwari

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd - Resilient Growth, Short-Term Challenges Remain

Despite a challenging environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 9% YoY, driven by strong performances in Ethnic (up 19% YoY)

Axis Direct

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail - GM Expansion Drives Beat; Near-Term Focus on Demerge

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL)’s revenue growth remained muted at ~3% YoY (in line) in 3QFY25. The growth was driven mainly by Ethnic and...

Motilal Oswal

The ABLBL demerger creates a focused entity with market-leading premium brands. Future growth potential lies in American Eagle and Reebok's...

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd demerged into two entities, ABLBL and ABFRL, to align capital with business maturity and target INR 30,000 Cr...